7821 Ethel St · Houston, TX 77028

$162,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 4,081 sqft lot $149/sqft · 19% below area Est $200k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

Key facts

• Expansive backyard
• Modern kitchen
• 4,081 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS NATURAL LIGHT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Lot about 4,082 sq ft; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 12); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,013 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,998
• List price: $162,900
• Delta: -18.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7801 Ethel St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	5mo	$85,000	$71	72
7973 Ritz St	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-2%)	3mo	$89,900	$84	71
6114 Haight St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+3%)	3mo	$168,000	$149	66
7966 Safebuy St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,109 (+2%)	9mo	$194,900	$176	60
6810 Tommye St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,119 (+2%)	6mo	$190,000	$170	59
5903 Haight St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,127 (+3%)	3mo	$125,000	$111	58
7955 Kenton St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+4%)	12mo	$180,000	$158	56
7966 Bonaire St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (+4%)	3mo	$188,000	$166	49
6239 Wedgefield St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,003 (-8%)	9mo	$135,000	$135	40
7981 Cinderella St St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,203 (+10%)	11mo	$190,000	$158	37
7921 Sparta St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+14%)	4mo	$200,000	$161	36
7990 Sparta St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+14%)	1mo	$240,000	$193	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $44,938
• Equity at exit: $94,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $118,166
• Equity at exit: $165,570

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,575/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $162,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7830 Nashville St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	8d	1	0.20mi
7945 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,699	$1.31	5d	1	0.23mi
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	5d	1	0.23mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	22d	1	0.40mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	44d	1	0.40mi
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	8d	1	0.43mi
8158 Sunbury St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,525	$1.17	24d	1	0.45mi
7839 Sandy St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	5d	1	0.49mi
7956 Bonaire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,150	$1.44	44d	1	0.72mi
7956 Bonaire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,100	$1.40	44d	1	0.72mi
5212 Ina St Houston, TX	1.0	1.5	1175	$1,050	$0.89	44d	1	0.88mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	22d	1	1.09mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	8d	1	1.13mi
8113 Denton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.16mi
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	44d	1	1.23mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,233	$1.21	14d	8	1.23mi
8216 Richland Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.27mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.29mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	1.33mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.34mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $162,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $162,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    listed $169,900 Active 973-char remark
13. 2026-03-10
    soldstatus
14. 2026-03-09
    soldstatus Closed 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

15. 2026-03-07
    status Pending 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

16. 2026-03-01
    status Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

17. 2026-02-28
    historical 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

18. 2026-02-26
    price $64,882 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $69,882 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    "Excellent lot-value opportunity in established East Houston! This 2-bed, 1-bath fixer-upper is priced for the land—perfect for investors, rehabbers, or builders looking to renovate into a rental, flip, or demolish for a new custom home. Convenient location with easy access to 610 Loop, major thoroughfares, Downtown Houston, and nearby amenities. Solid bones in a neighborhood seeing ongoing revitalization and infill development. Sold strictly AS-IS; buyer to verify all details, including measurements, utilities, schools (Houston ISD), and restrictions. Bring your vision and cash/investor offers!" Room measurements are estimates and need to be verified.

20. 1992-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$2,575
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$186
• After-tax cash flow: $2,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $162,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $64,882 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $69,882 HARMLS
• 1992-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,575 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.