2108 S Olivewood -- · Mesa, AZ 85209

$379,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2004 8,729 sqft lot $276/sqft · 11% below area Est $425k · 11% under $77/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seize the chance to own this charming home. It's the Southwest flair with custom plantation shutters & Santa Fe skip trowel walls that make this home unique. The open concept has tile flooring throughout with a vaulted ceiling in the great room, ceiling fans & canned llighting. Your bright kitchen is complete with plenty of cabinets, corian counters & upgraded white appliances. In the spacious primary bedroom is a king lift & store bed & 2 walk-in closets. There's double sinks in the bathroom. This beautiful residence boasts a low maintenance yard with a full irrigation system, gorgeous flora & an orange tree in the 8729 sq ft lot. Exit through the custom secutity door to find a full length patio with a roll down sunscreen to match. The extended garage has many cabinets & an epoxy floor.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Corian counters
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• CUSTOM PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SANTA FE SKIP TROWEL WALLS
• TILE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILING
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• CORIAN COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,609 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,766
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -10.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10840 E Keats Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,375 (0%)	7mo	$365,000	$265	90
11018 E Keats Ave E	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,375 (0%)	3mo	$385,000	$280	86
10840 E Kiva Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,375 (0%)	18mo	$406,010	$295	82
10832 E Keats Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	6mo	$390,000	$264	79
11241 E Keats Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,393 (+1%)	2mo	$430,000	$309	70
2220 S Benton --	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+2%)	23mo	$420,000	$300	63
10934 E Kiva Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,225 (-11%)	18mo	$425,000	$347	59
11010 E Keats Ave	0.25mi	2/1.8	1,547 (+12%)	12mo	$405,000	$262	57
2565 S Signal Butte Rd #35	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,415 (+3%)	16mo	$415,000	$293	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-30,874
• Equity at exit: $138,139

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-19,136
• Equity at exit: $190,546

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,016

Max offer price $265,975

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-425	-5% $-533	+0% $-640	+5% $-747	+10% $-854
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-727	+0% $-640	+5% $-553	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-449	-0.5pp $-543	base $-640	+0.5pp $-738	+1.0pp $-838

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10865 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1165	$2,550	$2.19	26d	1	0.09mi
2350 S Olivewood #106 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,595	$1.48	5d	1	0.29mi
2026 S Boca Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,165	$1.49	45d	1	0.64mi
10560 E Nichols Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,495	$2.05	26d	1	0.87mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #45 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,649	$1.53	45d	1	0.87mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #60 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1371	$2,600	$1.90	0d	1	0.87mi
10638 E Olla Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1535	$2,140	$1.39	26d	1	0.92mi
10529 E Hampton Ave Mesa, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,567	$2.70	0d	33	0.93mi
2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,049	$1.34	23d	1	1.21mi
2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,009	$1.32	16d	1	1.21mi
2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,109	$1.38	45d	1	1.21mi
10251 E Obispo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,999	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi
10258 E Plata Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,195	$1.36	0d	1	1.25mi
3117 S Signal Butte Rd #592 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,495	$1.41	0d	1	1.33mi
3117 S Signal Butte Rd #587 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,495	$1.41	5d	1	1.33mi
10044 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,295	$1.35	45d	1	1.35mi
9745 E Hampton Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1785	$2,498	$1.40	0d	8	1.37mi
1103 S Crismon Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,942	$1.86	0d	23	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $379,000 Pending 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,000 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $379,000 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Seize the chance to own this charming home. It's the Southwest flair with custom plantation shutters & Santa Fe skip trowel walls that make this home unique. The open concept has tile flooring throughout with a vaulted ceiling in the great room, ceiling fans & canned llighting. Your bright kitchen is complete with plenty of cabinets, corian counters & upgraded white appliances. In the spacious primary bedroom is a king lift & store bed & 2 walk-in closets. There's double sinks in the bathroom. This beautiful residence boasts a low maintenance yard with a full irrigation system, gorgeous flora & an orange tree in the 8729 sq ft lot. Exit through the custom secutity door to find a full length patio with a roll down sunscreen to match. The extended garage has many cabinets & an epoxy floor.

16. 2026-03-09
    price $389,000 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Seize the chance to own this charming home. It's the Southwest flair with custom plantation shutters & Santa Fe skip trowel walls that make this home unique. The open concept has tile flooring throughout with a vaulted ceiling in the great room, ceiling fans & canned llighting. Your bright kitchen is complete with plenty of cabinets, corian counters & upgraded white appliances. In the spacious primary bedroom is a king lift & store bed & 2 walk-in closets. There's double sinks in the bathroom. This beautiful residence boasts a low maintenance yard with a full irrigation system, gorgeous flora & an orange tree in the 8729 sq ft lot. Exit through the custom secutity door to find a full length patio with a roll down sunscreen to match. The extended garage has many cabinets & an epoxy floor.

17. 2026-01-23
    listed $399,000 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Seize the chance to own this charming home. It's the Southwest flair with custom plantation shutters & Santa Fe skip trowel walls that make this home unique. The open concept has tile flooring throughout with a vaulted ceiling in the great room, ceiling fans & canned llighting. Your bright kitchen is complete with plenty of cabinets, corian counters & upgraded white appliances. In the spacious primary bedroom is a king lift & store bed & 2 walk-in closets. There's double sinks in the bathroom. This beautiful residence boasts a low maintenance yard with a full irrigation system, gorgeous flora & an orange tree in the 8729 sq ft lot. Exit through the custom secutity door to find a full length patio with a roll down sunscreen to match. The extended garage has many cabinets & an epoxy floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$14,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,542
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $379,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $389,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $399,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.