27381 99th St · Coweta, OK 74014

$173,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Built 2018 0.45 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2018 Clayton model situated on a spacious ½-acre lot, offering comfort, functionality, and modern appeal. This lightly lived-in home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The main living areas are finished with durable laminate flooring, while the kitchen is highlighted by a central island that anchors the space. Enjoy relaxing mornings or evenings on the covered front porch, adding to the home’s overall charm and livability.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central island
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• CENTRAL ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Water available (rural); Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Single wide manufactured home; Single-story; Faces south; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Built by builder (year built source: Builder); Manufactured construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl insulated windows; Insulated doors; Laminate counters; Gas range and gas oven connections; No specified additional interior exterior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric and gas); Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in Coweta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#73 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 581 units permitted in Wagoner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wagoner County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.69%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,446
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,844
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74014

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9127 S 256th East Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,750	$1.20	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $173,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $175,000
16. 2026-04-13
    price $177,000
17. 2026-03-30
    price $179,000
18. 2026-01-26
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Coweta

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #9871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wagoner County · 61,834 people
• City population: 16,622
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 45,212
• Household income: $95,501
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 289.0

Population outlook (Wagoner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,796 people
• By 2030: 88,162 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 93,882 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 98,219 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 106,561 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 109,360 · +29.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wagoner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.2% · R 74.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 203.7301
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $175,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $177,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $179,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-26 Listed $180,000 MLS Technology, Inc.