5729 Lia Dr · Milton, FL 32570

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1995 0.40 ac lot Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

|| Single story Brick home, Split Bedroom plan sitting in a well established neighborhood on a large flat property || Ideal for the person looking for the spaciousness this property has || Side entry garage and easy access to the backyard from the driveway || If outdoor living is important to you then you will enjoy the large screened-in Patio and an over sized front porch || Open floor plan gives you and your company an easy flow for conversations || Zero Carpet - No carpet - || Hardwood flooring in the dining and living area, wood laminate flooring in the bedrooms ||

Key facts

• Brick residence
• Huge screened porch
• Large fenced yard

Tags

• BRICK RESIDENCE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HUGE SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• NATURAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained road; Directions provided to property
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Circuit breaker electrical; Cable available; Insulation and ridge vent (energy-efficiency features)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Homestead exemption indicated; Shingle (composition) roof
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Back yard chain-link fence; Paved road access; Interior lot with central access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor, approximately 15 x 13; Bedroom on the first floor, approximately 11 x 11.8; Second bedroom on the first floor, approximately 10.5 x 11.8
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Double pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($178/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Berryhill Elementary School (math 71% / reading 62%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 923 students, 51% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $259k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,613 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,526
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5905 Castle Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-1%)	6mo	$255,000	$171	82
6008 Kingswood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+0%)	5mo	$225,000	$149	74
5898 Cedar Tree Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$170	70
5905 Pamela Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+8%)	1mo	$245,000	$151	68
5773 Hermitage Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+14%)	3mo	$250,000	$146	66
6136 Arnies Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+11%)	2mo	$285,000	$170	61
5633 Lia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+15%)	8mo	$295,000	$171	60
5899 Cedar Tree Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-5%)	13mo	$290,000	$204	57
5763 Melrose Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+8%)	2mo	$295,000	$181	56
6028 Players Pl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (+15%)	1mo	$365,000	$211	53
5783 Sunview Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	10mo	$275,000	$172	51
5837 Northrop Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-14%)	13mo	$307,000	$236	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,730
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-38,001
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,341/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $88	+0% $15	+5% $-58	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-65	+0% $15	+5% $94	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $81	base $15	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5837 Berryhill Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,950	$1.72	23d	1	0.66mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	25d	1	0.79mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	0.79mi
5555 Hannah St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$1,900	$0.95	25d	1	0.84mi
5432 Homestead Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,700	$1.00	15d	1	1.19mi
5733 Orange St Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	25d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $259,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,341
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$4,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $1,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 69,025
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+239.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $259,000 PARMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (MLS) $153,000 PARMLS
• 2017-09-13 Listed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2009-08-19 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2009-08-06 Listed $135,000 PARMLS
• 2005-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $148,900 Public Records
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,341 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.