154 Burben Way · Rochester, NY 14624

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1959 0.30 ac lot $134/sqft · 14% below area Est $210k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE JUST REDUCED $5K!!!! Priced below assessment. 3 Bedroom ranch on a dead end street. Close to airport, expressways, shopping. Price reflects some rehab needed. Good candidate for 203K loan. See attachment for foundation quote.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Heated garage
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• GATES-CHILI NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEWLY ADDED BEDROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• HEATED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.3 acres, 75 x 179); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storage; Full basement with sump pump; Laundry in basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer area in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $180k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,197
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -14.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Burben Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	3mo	$114,000	$84	83
148 Burben Way	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-9%)	8mo	$212,000	$174	74
30 Frostholm Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$189,000	$151	64
234 Fisher Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-1%)	11mo	$240,000	$181	63
122 Fisher Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,428 (+6%)	7mo	$226,000	$158	57
79 Mareeta Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,189 (-12%)	6mo	$245,000	$206	51
90 Caroline Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,453 (+8%)	5mo	$220,000	$151	48
203 Elham Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-14%)	0mo	$180,000	$156	46
4 Ranch Village Ln	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,174 (-13%)	7mo	$242,500	$207	44
14 Fisher Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+9%)	9mo	$195,000	$133	40
247 Dorstone Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-12%)	9mo	$150,000	$128	40
114 Arrowhead Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-15%)	8mo	$172,500	$151	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-23,020
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,457
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,947/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
254 Fisher Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	44d	1	0.53mi
266 Fisher Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $179,900 Active 468-char remark
2. 2015-10-06
   historical 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   PRICE JUST REDUCED $5K!!!! Priced below assessment. 3 Bedroom ranch on a dead end street. Close to airport, expressways, shopping. Price reflects some rehab needed. Good candidate for 203K loan. See attachment for foundation quote.

3. 2015-09-16
   soldstatus $50,000 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   PRICE JUST REDUCED $5K!!!! Priced below assessment. 3 Bedroom ranch on a dead end street. Close to airport, expressways, shopping. Price reflects some rehab needed. Good candidate for 203K loan. See attachment for foundation quote.

4. 2015-09-08
   soldstatus $50,000
5. 2015-07-16
   price $49,500
6. 2015-07-06
   price $55,900
7. 2015-06-11
   listed $49,500 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   PRICE JUST REDUCED $5K!!!! Priced below assessment. 3 Bedroom ranch on a dead end street. Close to airport, expressways, shopping. Price reflects some rehab needed. Good candidate for 203K loan. See attachment for foundation quote.

8. 2014-11-15
   listed $69,900
9. 2013-10-02
   listed $84,900
10. 2013-03-20
    listed $84,900
11. 2000-12-21
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,947 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,947 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$6,947
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$384
• After-tax cash flow: $1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+176.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $179,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-10-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $50,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-16 Price Changed $49,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-06 Price Changed $55,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-11 Listed $49,500 UNYREIS
• 2014-11-15 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-03-20 Listed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2000-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,947 · +57.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.