558 Patrick Farms Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$307,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $171/sqft · at area comps Est $306k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this NEW CONSTRUCTION home from a LOCAL BUILDER. This is a 4/2 split plan with an open feel. This home has a large family room with high ceilings that is open to the kitchen and eating area. The kitchen has a large island, pantry, custom built cabinets(no pre fab cabinets), and stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom has vaulted ceiling and has a door that leads into the master bath. The master bath has double vanities, seperate shower, and a large walk in closet with direct access to the laundry room. This home also has a nice covered porch to enjoy the back yard. The builder is offering concessions to be used for the buyers choice of an interest rate buy down, fence, gutters, etc.

Key facts

• Large family room
• New construction
• Large island

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LARGE ISLAND
• CUSTOM BUILT CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,530/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1235% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,004 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,503
• List price: $307,000
• Delta: 0.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
542 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+1%)	4mo	$299,999	$166	96
537 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	1,818 (+1%)	1mo	$309,900	$170	93
562 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,807 (+0%)	2mo	$307,200	$170	93
425 Patrick Farms	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,800 (0%)	1mo	$279,900	$156	92
563 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+1%)	3mo	$299,999	$166	91
571 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+1%)	3mo	$299,999	$166	91
539 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,804 (+0%)	2mo	$308,000	$171	90
575 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+8%)	4mo	$319,999	$164	82
518 Westfield Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-1%)	1mo	$299,775	$168	73
530 Planters Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-5%)	4mo	$272,500	$159	61
217 Clubview Cir	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,983 (+10%)	2mo	$332,999	$168	48
438 Clubhouse Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+10%)	4mo	$284,900	$144	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-48,748
• Equity at exit: $45,775

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,749
• Equity at exit: $26,544

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,605/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,686

Max offer price $289,220

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-17	+0% $-123	+5% $-229	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-223	+0% $-123	+5% $-23	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-45	base $-123	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
548 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	15d	1	0.03mi
573 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1910	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	0.04mi
563 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	15d	1	0.32mi
571 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	15d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Come check out this NEW CONSTRUCTION home from a LOCAL BUILDER. This is a 4/2 split plan with an open feel. This home has a large family room with high ceilings that is open to the kitchen and eating area. The kitchen has a large island, pantry, custom built cabinets(no pre fab cabinets), and stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom has vaulted ceiling and has a door that leads into the master bath. The master bath has double vanities, seperate shower, and a large walk in closet with direct access to the laundry room. This home also has a nice covered porch to enjoy the back yard. The builder is offering concessions to be used for the buyers choice of an interest rate buy down, fence, gutters, etc.

2. 2026-02-28
   listed $307,000 Active 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Come check out this NEW CONSTRUCTION home from a LOCAL BUILDER. This is a 4/2 split plan with an open feel. This home has a large family room with high ceilings that is open to the kitchen and eating area. The kitchen has a large island, pantry, custom built cabinets(no pre fab cabinets), and stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom has vaulted ceiling and has a door that leads into the master bath. The master bath has double vanities, seperate shower, and a large walk in closet with direct access to the laundry room. This home also has a nice covered porch to enjoy the back yard. The builder is offering concessions to be used for the buyers choice of an interest rate buy down, fence, gutters, etc.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$4,605
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$6,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and adding landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Installing a security system — Improves safety and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and adding landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Installing a security system — Improves safety and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-28 Listed $307,000 MLSU