658 Willow Creek Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · Condo public records

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

986 sq ft 2BR/1B condo located in N. Macon. Inside has been freshly painted. Has a sunroom off of living area that leads to back patio. All kitchen appliances are included as well as the washer& amp; dryer. This condo is located a short walk from the clubhouse, pool and tennis courts. It is conveniently located just minutes from I-75,shopping & amp; dinning.

Key facts

• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,538 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,155
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,919
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $539/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $74	+0% $39	+5% $3	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $-2	+0% $39	+5% $79	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $70	base $39	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Charter Ln Macon, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,322	$1.21	14d	18	0.82mi
825 S Forest Lake Dr Unit 2 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,200	$1.12	44d	1	1.22mi
3266 Highpoint Dr Unit 593-B Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	44d	1	1.24mi
133 Auburn Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	44d	1	1.25mi
4126 Ayers Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	14d	1	1.25mi
3576 Vineville Ave Unit 3550-D-LT Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	863	$995	$1.15	14d	1	1.25mi
4353 Barrington Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,000	$0.90	14d	1	1.28mi
4250 Ayers Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	14d	1	1.29mi
4033 N Napier Ave Unit 6 Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	1.29mi
4357 Azalea Dr Unit 4357 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	1.31mi
3163 High Point Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	22d	1	1.32mi
4342 Barrington Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1092	$950	$0.87	22d	1	1.32mi
140 Prentice Pl Apt F Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$785	$1.31	44d	1	1.39mi
140 Prentice Pl Apt E Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	44d	1	1.39mi
3808 Fairmont Ave Unit A Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	793	$595	$0.75	44d	1	1.45mi
3330 Ridge Ave Unit D4 Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,050	$0.99	14d	1	1.45mi
965 N Pierce Ave Unit A Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1032	$985	$0.95	44d	1	1.46mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 57A Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	680	$800	$1.18	22d	1	1.50mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 63B Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,050	$0.93	22d	1	1.50mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 57C Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	914	$1,050	$1.15	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $125,000
2. 2026-04-30
   soldstatus $125,000
3. 2003-05-30
   soldstatus $68,900
4. 1999-12-17
   soldstatus $56,000
5. 1997-10-03
   soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 113.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$539
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$407
• After-tax cash flow: $869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+145.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records
• 1999-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $539 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.