949 Paseo Queretaro · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$257,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2005 1.17 ac lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the peaceful community of Rio Rico, 949 Paseo Querétaro offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. Generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility, while the backyard offers room to relax and enjoy the quiet desert surroundings. Convenient access to I-19 and local schools makes this home a great opportunity to enjoy Southern Arizona living.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Local schools
• 1.17 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BEDROOMS
• BACKYARD
• QUIET DESERT SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-19
• LOCAL SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $258k implies a 310% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,996 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,229
• List price: $257,999
• Delta: -0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
268 Mirto Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-3%)	11mo	$270,000	$177	85
231 Via Espina	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,555 (-1%)	10mo	$265,000	$170	81
279 Rayo Ct A	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,656 (+5%)	4mo	$345,000	$208	72
282 Olga Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-0%)	3mo	$282,000	$179	67
971 Calle Dura	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+6%)	16mo	$232,000	$140	67
284 Olga Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	1mo	$259,000	$168	64
944 Paseo Queretaro	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	16mo	$241,000	$179	55
905 Via Puebla	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-10%)	16mo	$230,000	$162	54
955 Tecla Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-9%)	1mo	$259,000	$181	50
941 Via Puebla	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+14%)	12mo	$274,000	$152	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $125,090
• Equity at exit: $232,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $380,230
• Equity at exit: $501,235

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,477/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $215,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-168	+0% $-241	+5% $-314	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-308	+0% $-241	+5% $-173	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-111	-0.5pp $-175	base $-241	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $257,999 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,999 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,999 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $257,999 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $257,999 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $257,999 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $257,999 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $257,999 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-04-30
   price $257,999 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Located in the peaceful community of Rio Rico, 949 Paseo Querétaro offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. Generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility, while the backyard offers room to relax and enjoy the quiet desert surroundings. Convenient access to I-19 and local schools makes this home a great opportunity to enjoy Southern Arizona living.

10. 2026-02-26
    listed $267,999 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Located in the peaceful community of Rio Rico, 949 Paseo Querétaro offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. Generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility, while the backyard offers room to relax and enjoy the quiet desert surroundings. Convenient access to I-19 and local schools makes this home a great opportunity to enjoy Southern Arizona living.

11. 2012-07-13
    soldstatus $63,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Very nice 3 bdrm 2 bath HUD home sitting high on hill on large lot. Concrete driveway leads you up hill to home.

12. 2012-04-17
    listed $62,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Very nice 3 bdrm 2 bath HUD home sitting high on hill on large lot. Concrete driveway leads you up hill to home.

13. 2011-09-30
    historical
14. 2011-03-31
    listed $148,000
15. 2010-07-01
    historical
16. 2010-04-01
    listed $129,000
17. 2004-08-19
    soldstatus $9,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$225/yr (+$19/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,477
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$7,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,821
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2532.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $257,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-26 Listed $267,999 MLSSAZ
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-04-17 Listed $62,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-31 Listed $148,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-04-01 Listed $129,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $9,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,477 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.