200 Kentucky Ave · Providence, KY 42450

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully built 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 884 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. This new construction features an open-concept floor plan with vaulted ceilings that create a bright and spacious feel throughout. The home showcases modern finishes, including durable LVP flooring throughout the entire house for a seamless, low-maintenance look. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Stay comfortable year-round with an efficient mini split system, providing both heating and cooling while keeping energy costs in check. Step outside and enjoy the charming front porch,

Key facts

• Charming front porch
• Vaulted ceilings
• Durable lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• DURABLE LVP FLOORING
• EFFICIENT MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• COZY OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Providence Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 290 students, 76% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $130k implies a 738% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,656 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $26,394
• Equity at exit: $76,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $84,166
• Equity at exit: $135,184

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $115,064

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-58	+0% $-103	+5% $-147	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-142	+0% $-103	+5% $-63	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-69	base $-103	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2004-09-01
   soldstatus $15,500
4. 1991-10-01
   soldstatus $8,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$842
• After-tax cash flow: $-389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1410.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $129,900 FSBO.com
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $11 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.