Juniper Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40023

$332,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 522 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Juniper - one of Arbor Homes' newest two-story floorplans, offering beautiful exterior designs and flexible options to make it uniquely yours. Choose from multiple upgrades, add a basement for extra space, or expand your great room with a 2' rear and side extension. You can even add a third-car garage for more storage. Step inside to a welcoming hallway and convenient powder bath before entering the open-concept main floor. The spacious great room is perfect for entertaining, with an optional fireplace for cozy winter nights. The L-shaped kitchen features ample cabinetry, a walk-in pantry, and a large island ideal for meal prep or homework time. Enjoy family dinners in the c

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,990

Exterior

• Utilities: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan located at Juniper Plan, Fisherville KY 40023; Active status
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1760

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan name: Juniper; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $332,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $388,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $333k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 522 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $293,031 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 522 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2218 Clark Station Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,882 (+7%)	15mo	$400,000	$213	53
2212 Clark Station Rd	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-14%)	10mo	$332,583	$221	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-83,238
• Equity at exit: $57,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-98,379
• Equity at exit: $33,630

Cash invested: $108,909 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40023

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,834/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,403

Max offer price $342,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-184	+0% $-318	+5% $-452	+10% $-587
Rent	-10% $-555	-5% $-437	+0% $-318	+5% $-200	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-219	base $-318	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,240
• Closing costs: $11,669
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3222 Catalpa Farms Dr Fisherville, KY	3.0	2.5	2004	$3,000	$1.50	24d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $332,990 Active 522 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $332,990 Active 519 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,990 Active 518 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,990 Active 517 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,990 Active 516 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,990 Active 514 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $332,990 Active 511 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,990 Active 510 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $332,990 Active 509 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $332,990 Active 508 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $332,990 Active 504 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $332,990 Active 503 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $332,990 Active 502 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $332,990 Active 501 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,788
• − Property taxes: −$5,834
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$11,315
• Taxable loss: −$10,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,554
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• City population: 419,741
• Population (ZIP): 6,484

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.35%
• Current HPI: 227.4205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B