149 Palm Pl · Falcon Mesa, TX 78076

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1980 3,432 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home located in the Four Seasons subdivision of Zapata, Texas. The home features a functional layout with covered parking, a concrete driveway, and outdoor space. Located near Falcon Lake with lake views that are expected to improve as water levels rise. Property offers potential for buyers seeking a residence in an established lakeside community.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Lake views
• Lakeside community

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• LAKE VIEWS
• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,652 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.90%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $25,321
• Equity at exit: $20,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $63,000
• Equity at exit: $31,492

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $399/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $552

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $333	+0% $320	+5% $306	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $282	+0% $320	+5% $357	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $332	base $320	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    price $49,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home located in the Four Seasons subdivision of Zapata, Texas. The home features a functional layout with covered parking, a concrete driveway, and outdoor space. Located near Falcon Lake with lake views that are expected to improve as water levels rise. Property offers potential for buyers seeking a residence in an established lakeside community.

18. 2026-01-28
    listed $55,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home located in the Four Seasons subdivision of Zapata, Texas. The home features a functional layout with covered parking, a concrete driveway, and outdoor space. Located near Falcon Lake with lake views that are expected to improve as water levels rise. Property offers potential for buyers seeking a residence in an established lakeside community.

19. 2025-08-11
    price $59,999
20. 2025-07-15
    price $55,000
21. 2025-04-17
    price $59,999
22. 2025-02-25
    price $65,000
23. 2025-01-18
    listed $68,000 Active
24. 2024-09-29
    listed $69,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $399 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$41/mo · 124.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$399
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $3,322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$797
• After-tax cash flow: $3,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falcon Mesa

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #1652
• US rank: #27633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falcon Mesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $49,000 LAOR
• 2026-01-28 Listed $55,000 LAOR
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $59,999 LAOR
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $55,000 LAOR
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $59,999 LAOR
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $65,000 LAOR
• 2025-01-18 Listed $68,000 LAOR
• 2024-09-29 Listed $69,999 LAOR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $399 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.