2005 200th Ln · Ocean Park, WA 98640

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1980 6,534 sqft lot $259/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE HOME CLOSE TO LOOMIS LAKE ACCESS! Down a charming dead end road, you will find this 2 Bedroom 1 bath manufactured home, ready to be loved and brought back to life by a new owner. Home being sold AS IS and comes fully furnished. Lake access is 150 yards away, just down the neighboring street. Enjoy your nights surrounding the firepit in your peaceful yard with mature landscaping. Interesting shed included for your storage and gardening needs. Enjoy your days strolling to the lake or take a 3 minute drive to the near by BEACH public access, less than 2 miles away. Come and see why life is Better at the Beach!

Key facts

• Firepit
• Peaceful yard
• Interesting shed

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• FIREPIT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• INTERESTING SHED
• PEACEFUL YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -7.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1710 195th St	0.32mi	2/2.0	840 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$321	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,023
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $65,424
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98640

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1509 178th Pl Long Beach, WA	2.0	1.0	896	$2,600	$2.90	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $5,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $6,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.15%
• Current HPI: 222.8758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $56 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.