18506 Camellia Terrace Dr · Houston, TX 77532

$205,790

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $117/sqft · 24% below area Est $270k · 24% under $192/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $206k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $202,703 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,990
• List price: $205,790
• Delta: -23.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18506 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	1mo	$205,790	$117	99
1530 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	95
1511 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	1mo	$205,290	$119	93
1542 Marigold Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-2%)	1mo	$246,990	$143	79
18502 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	1mo	$231,990	$118	77
18530 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	1mo	$238,990	$121	75
18327 Ginger Glen Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+6%)	1mo	$308,990	$166	73
1734 Indigo Chase Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+8%)	1mo	$235,140	$124	72
1602 Marigold Bend Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-7%)	1mo	$246,190	$151	70
1531 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-14%)	1mo	$270,990	$178	68
1719 Indigo Chase Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-9%)	0mo	$290,990	$182	67
1730 Indigo Chase Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	1mo	$309,990	$159	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-18,317
• Equity at exit: $30,684

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,948
• Equity at exit: $17,793

Cash invested: $57,621 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,079
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$257 /mo · $3,087/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $205,790

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $362	+0% $291	+5% $219	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $195	+0% $291	+5% $386	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $343	base $291	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,448
• Closing costs: $6,174
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	25d	1	0.06mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	25d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $205,790 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-04
   price $217,990 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $219,990 Active 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-10
   price $219,990
7. 2026-04-01
   price $225,990
8. 2026-04-01
   listed $289,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,527
• − Property taxes: −$3,087
• − Insurance: −$1,029
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,987
• Taxable income: $370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $3,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property offers a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and increase value.
• Both Lighting fixtures — Upgrading lighting can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance.
• Both Window treatments — Fresh window treatments can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's appeal.
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and increase value. ↑
• Both Lighting fixtures — Upgrading lighting can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Fresh window treatments can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $205,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $217,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $289,990 HARMLS