202 Michigan Ave · Watertown, NY 13601

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1900 3,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint city home that even includes the picket fence! 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot. The attic is finished for more living space. Fully fenced in lawn with detached 1 stall garage. Priced to sell, Call today for your appointment to check it out!!!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Finished attic
• Fenced-in yard

Tags

• FINISHED ATTIC
• FENCED-IN YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CORNER LOT
• RECENT UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $900; list at $89k implies a 9789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.14%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,239
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Michigan Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,411 (0%)	1mo	$89,000	$63	100
220 Wyoming Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	3mo	$244,500	$177	84
241 Colorado Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,525 (+8%)	0mo	$225,000	$148	80
1212 Boyd St	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,367 (-3%)	1mo	$185,880	$136	79
134 N Pearl Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,345 (-5%)	1mo	$168,000	$125	77
236 Colorado Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,252 (-11%)	2mo	$210,000	$168	75
1214 Academy St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-5%)	6mo	$261,000	$194	74
115 California Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+9%)	6mo	$245,000	$159	69
412 Pawling St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,424 (+1%)	0mo	$240,000	$169	64
405 Brainard St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,308 (-7%)	4mo	$146,000	$112	51
523 Emerson St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	1mo	$47,100	$31	49
415 Thompson Blvd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-12%)	6mo	$185,000	$149	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $26,650
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $101,610
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,656/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $547	+0% $522	+5% $497	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $464	+0% $522	+5% $580	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $545	base $522	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,440	$1.00	45d	9	0.26mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	45d	1	0.29mi
109 Spring Ave Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.38mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.38mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	45d	1	0.41mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.50mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	0.63mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	45d	1	0.68mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,462	$1.06	45d	6	0.70mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	45d	1	0.79mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	0.97mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	45d	1	1.24mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-10
   price $89,000
4. 2025-10-23
   price $109,000
5. 2025-10-09
   price $115,000
6. 2025-09-30
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2015-10-02
   soldstatus $900 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Quaint city home that even includes the picket fence! 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot. The attic is finished for more living space. Fully fenced in lawn with detached 1 stall garage. Priced to sell, Call today for your appointment to check it out!!!

8. 2015-05-12
   listed $91,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Quaint city home that even includes the picket fence! 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on a corner lot. The attic is finished for more living space. Fully fenced in lawn with detached 1 stall garage. Priced to sell, Call today for your appointment to check it out!!!

9. 2014-04-04
   historical
10. 2013-10-04
    listed $98,000
11. 2003-06-26
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,656
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $5,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+67.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-12-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $89,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $109,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $125,000 CNYIS
• 2015-10-02 Sold (MLS) $900 CNYIS
• 2015-05-12 Listed $91,000 CNYIS
• 2014-04-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2013-10-04 Listed $98,000 CNYIS
• 2003-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,656 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.