4210 Allston St · Houston, TX 77018

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 746 Days on market

Built 1938 5,248 sqft lot $156/sqft · 22% below area Est $198k · at est. ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

Key facts

• 5,248 sq ft lot
• Built 1938
• Listed 746 days

Tags

• HIGH-END CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kennedy El (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 517 students, 96% FRL); Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 508 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 746 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 746 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.64%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,144
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 0.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4330 Heite St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (+1%)	7mo	$295,000	$228	67
218 Victoria Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (-0%)	1mo	$135,000	$106	60
713 E 37th St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,240 (-3%)	4mo	$235,000	$190	59
102 E 44th st St Unit B	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,406 (+10%)	12mo	$315,000	$224	58
330 Neyland St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,427 (+12%)	0mo	$309,900	$217	55
312 W 32nd St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,196 (-7%)	6mo	$725,000	$606	55
328 Neyland St	0.30mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,427 (+12%)	1mo	$319,900	$224	55
706 Jerry St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,255 (-2%)	8mo	$265,000	$211	54
714 E 43rd St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,327 (+4%)	10mo	$199,000	$150	54
411 E 37th St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (+7%)	6mo	$230,000	$168	51
4310 Busiek St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,332 (+4%)	9mo	$139,900	$105	50
4305 Castor St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (-12%)	6mo	$109,000	$97	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,634
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,861
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77018

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 508
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,534/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $413	+0% $356	+5% $300	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $276	+0% $356	+5% $437	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $407	base $356	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 W 44th St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.10mi
221 Oriole St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,083	$1.43	26d	1	0.12mi
8502 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,685	$1.11	22d	1	0.25mi
268 W Crosstimbers St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$1,850	$1.92	20d	1	0.27mi
148 Knightsbridge Park Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,500	$1.58	45d	1	0.49mi
641 W Crosstimbers St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,237	$2.58	1d	38	0.50mi
611 E 39th St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,099	$1.58	45d	1	0.53mi
538 E 38th St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1521	$2,300	$1.51	45d	1	0.54mi
4515 Oxford St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$950	$1.00	45d	1	0.58mi
316 Thornton Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1828	$2,500	$1.37	45d	1	0.58mi
4513 Oxford St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$980	$1.03	26d	1	0.59mi
4605 Lavatera St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1686	$2,265	$1.34	1d	1	0.63mi
4605 Lavatera St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1686	$2,265	$1.34	23d	1	0.63mi
322 E 33rd St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.68mi
3514 Ajax St Unit 1047956P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$3,114	$1.84	9d	1	0.72mi
619 Thornton Oaks Ln Unit Labs Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,200	$1.33	9d	1	0.80mi
3411 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,910	$1.64	45d	1	0.82mi
3405 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,573	$1.73	0d	15	0.82mi
4132 Europa St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,430	$1.14	14d	1	0.82mi
228 W 27th St Unit House Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	16d	1	0.97mi
823 North Loop Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,500	$1.63	26d	1	1.00mi
880 W 34th St Unit 903 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,255	$2.20	13d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,255	$2.20	0d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,858	$1.89	4d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,306	$2.25	6d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,818	$1.86	0d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,296	$2.24	0d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,271	$2.21	9d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 917 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,295	$2.23	12d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,858	$1.89	12d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,306	$2.25	12d	1	1.03mi
880 W 34th St Unit 913 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,761	$1.83	17d	1	1.03mi
4840 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,057	$2.36	5d	21	1.04mi
622 Janisch Rd Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1785	$2,650	$1.48	45d	1	1.05mi
5050 Yale St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	0d	1	1.06mi
3409 Brinkman St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$2,445	$2.49	0d	38	1.09mi
401 W 25th St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,481	$3.57	3d	19	1.09mi
3014 Attridge Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.14mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	45d	1	1.14mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	26d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 746 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 743 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 742 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 741 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 740 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 738 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 734 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 733 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 732 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 729 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 726 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 725 DOM
13. 2025-10-03
    price $200,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

14. 2025-08-12
    price $175,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

15. 2025-05-13
    price $185,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

16. 2025-04-22
    price $190,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

17. 2025-04-10
    price $200,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

18. 2025-04-05
    price $225,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

19. 2024-08-16
    price $249,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

20. 2024-06-11
    price $250,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

21. 2024-06-05
    listed $300,000 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    LOCATION Location L O C A T I O N !!! This is a rare opportunity to get in this super HOT neighborhood. 5,250+ sft lot, 0.8 mi from 610 Loop, Whole Foods Market, surrounded by new high-end construction. Reno or new construction value add. Present your offer. This will NOT last long.

22. 2022-11-12
    historical
23. 2022-11-03
    price $240,000
24. 2022-10-14
    price $250,000
25. 2022-08-23
    price $265,000
26. 2022-08-15
    price $275,000
27. 2022-08-11
    price $300,000
28. 2022-08-07
    price $325,000
29. 2022-08-01
    price $350,000
30. 2022-07-26
    price $385,000
31. 2022-07-15
    listed $400,000 Active
32. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,126/yr (+$177/mo · 138.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,534
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $4,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,031
• Household income: $127,017
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1324.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.49%
• Current HPI: 263.9321
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-15 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-07 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listed $400,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,534 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.