9555 Falls Rd · Banning, CA 92339

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 554 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great vacation cabin makes "going to the mountains" a common phrase. Stone fireplace and open ceiling with exposed trusses will remind you of the "call of the wild" while you relax with your boots on or hike to the waterfalls or San Gorgonio peak, the highest point in Southern California. Kitchen with all the essentials including granite counters and "indoor" bathroom with corner shower. Attic room is great place to read a book and peak into the living room. Mostly furnished and good parking. Under Special Use Permit (lease land) with U. S. Forest Service as a recreational vacation use cabin. .. they don't make them like this anymore.

Key facts

• Cozy loft
• Towering pines
• Nearby creek

Tags

• COZY LOFT
• STUNNING STONE FIREPLACE
• LEASED FOREST SERVICE LAND
• TOWERING PINES
• NEARBY CREEK
• SEASONAL WATERFALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.0% in Banning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,192 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $96,476
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.84×
• Total profit: $268,180
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92339

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,161

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $357	+0% $318	+5% $278	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $256	+0% $318	+5% $379	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $353	base $318	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $140,000 Active
16. 2017-10-31
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed Sale 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Great vacation cabin makes "going to the mountains" a common phrase. Stone fireplace and open ceiling with exposed trusses will remind you of the "call of the wild" while you relax with your boots on or hike to the waterfalls or San Gorgonio peak, the highest point in Southern California. Kitchen with all the essentials including granite counters and "indoor" bathroom with corner shower. Attic room is great place to read a book and peak into the living room. Mostly furnished and good parking. Under Special Use Permit (lease land) with U. S. Forest Service as a recreational vacation use cabin. .. they don't make them like this anymore.

17. 2017-10-02
    status Pending Sale 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Great vacation cabin makes "going to the mountains" a common phrase. Stone fireplace and open ceiling with exposed trusses will remind you of the "call of the wild" while you relax with your boots on or hike to the waterfalls or San Gorgonio peak, the highest point in Southern California. Kitchen with all the essentials including granite counters and "indoor" bathroom with corner shower. Attic room is great place to read a book and peak into the living room. Mostly furnished and good parking. Under Special Use Permit (lease land) with U. S. Forest Service as a recreational vacation use cabin. .. they don't make them like this anymore.

18. 2017-08-22
    listed $90,000 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Great vacation cabin makes "going to the mountains" a common phrase. Stone fireplace and open ceiling with exposed trusses will remind you of the "call of the wild" while you relax with your boots on or hike to the waterfalls or San Gorgonio peak, the highest point in Southern California. Kitchen with all the essentials including granite counters and "indoor" bathroom with corner shower. Attic room is great place to read a book and peak into the living room. Mostly furnished and good parking. Under Special Use Permit (lease land) with U. S. Forest Service as a recreational vacation use cabin. .. they don't make them like this anymore.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $3,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Banning

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1192
• US rank: #26047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 33,755
• Population (ZIP): 1,277

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.65%
• Current HPI: 298.6731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-10-31 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CRMLS
• 2017-10-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-08-22 Listed $90,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,500 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.