5914 Moncrief Rd W · Jacksonville, FL 32219

$219,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,201 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home! This stunning BRAND NEW, two story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. With NO HOA or CDD fees, welcome to a low maintenance lifestyle. Step inside this beautifully designed home, where a spacious living area seamlessly flows into a modern kitchen featuring brand new stainless steel appliances, sleek shaker cabinets, and an open view of the inviting dining space. Upstairs, all bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned for privacy, creating a peaceful retreat away from the main living areas. With its stylish updates and functional layout, this home is perfect for comfortable living and entertaining! Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room, a single

Key facts

• Single car garage
• Shaker cabinets
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER CABINETS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SINGLE CAR GARAGE
• BUILDER'S WARRANTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Fiber cement construction
• Exterior features: No private pool; Lot approximately 0.2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Jean Ribault Middle School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 679 students, 78% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,832 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-54,346
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-83,780
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32219

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 547
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $188,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-142	+0% $-218	+5% $-294	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-283	+0% $-218	+5% $-153	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-162	base $-218	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7623 John F Kennedy Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,501	$1.49	26d	1	0.16mi
8036 Mattox Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1160	$1,480	$1.28	18d	1	0.36mi
8119 Siskin Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,650	$1.50	26d	1	0.46mi
8119 Siskin Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,650	$1.50	19d	1	0.46mi
7860 Rondo Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,410	$1.33	9d	1	0.62mi
8367 Tubman Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1398	$1,790	$1.28	19d	1	0.74mi
6609 Miriam St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	9d	1	0.77mi
9206 Greenleaf Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	888	$1,400	$1.58	19d	1	0.91mi
6718 Gaspar Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,305	$1.22	26d	1	1.00mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	19d	1	1.01mi
4895 Churchill Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	26d	1	1.05mi
9340 Sibbald Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1228	$1,606	$1.31	6d	1	1.07mi
8645 Samona Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	26d	1	1.07mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	26d	1	1.12mi
4935 Portsmouth Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	894	$1,163	$1.30	12d	1	1.21mi
9436 Gisborne Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	950	$1,440	$1.52	22d	1	1.31mi
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	23d	1	1.31mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	9d	1	1.33mi
8534 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,995	$1.41	26d	1	1.37mi
4737 Portsmouth Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1396	$1,148	$0.82	26d	1	1.39mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,670	$1.12	0d	1	1.42mi
4643 Williamsburg Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,496	$1.24	5d	1	1.45mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	16d	1	1.45mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	19d	1	1.46mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	19d	1	1.46mi
9348 Culpeper Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	882	$1,195	$1.35	26d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,990 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,990 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,990 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,990 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,990 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,990 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,990 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-04
    listed $219,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,302
• Household income: $72,184
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.90%
• Current HPI: 263.8901
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $219,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · +73.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.