4625 Canary Way · Crestview, FL 32539

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Land public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2022 10,454 sqft lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! ~ Nestled on a spacious quarter- acre lot, the split floor plan features a large living area with a cozy wood-burning fireplace and a formal dining space. Step inside to find LVP flooring, orange peel wall texture and retextured ceilings. The kitchen boasts white painted cabinets, stainless appliances, upgraded counter tops and backsplash. Additional updates include updated light fixtures, newer guest tub surround, a resurfaced tub and shower in the master, new master vanity, new French doors and vinyl siding. New front and back deck complete with a yard building for all your storage needs. To top it all off. .. Brand New Shingled Roof, 2025 -WH 2022- HVAC 2022 * Seller Offering $2000 in Closing Costs or Buy Down. 1987 Actual Age-with updates its Effective Age is 2022

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Lvp flooring
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• LVP FLOORING
• WHITE PAINTED CABINETS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED COUNTER TOPS
• NEWER GUEST TUB SURROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 521 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.10%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,598
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 3.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,937
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,341
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32539

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 521
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $541	+0% $493	+5% $445	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $412	+0% $493	+5% $574	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $536	base $493	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4624 Dove Way Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,100	$1.53	14d	1	0.02mi
5654 Falcon Way Crestview, FL	2.0	1.0	966	$1,560	$1.61	44d	1	0.21mi
5312 Kervin Rd Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,750	$1.45	14d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    status Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! ~ Nestled on a spacious quarter- acre lot, the split floor plan features a large living area with a cozy wood-burning fireplace and a formal dining space. Step inside to find LVP flooring, orange peel wall texture and retextured ceilings. The kitchen boasts white painted cabinets, stainless appliances, upgraded counter tops and backsplash. Additional updates include updated light fixtures, newer guest tub surround, a resurfaced tub and shower in the master, new master vanity, new French doors and vinyl siding. New front and back deck complete with a yard building for all your storage needs. To top it all off. .. Brand New Shingled Roof, 2025 -WH 2022- HVAC 2022 * Seller Offering $2000 in Closing Costs or Buy Down. 1987 Actual Age-with updates its Effective Age is 2022

17. 2026-01-27
    listed $170,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! ~ Nestled on a spacious quarter- acre lot, the split floor plan features a large living area with a cozy wood-burning fireplace and a formal dining space. Step inside to find LVP flooring, orange peel wall texture and retextured ceilings. The kitchen boasts white painted cabinets, stainless appliances, upgraded counter tops and backsplash. Additional updates include updated light fixtures, newer guest tub surround, a resurfaced tub and shower in the master, new master vanity, new French doors and vinyl siding. New front and back deck complete with a yard building for all your storage needs. To top it all off. .. Brand New Shingled Roof, 2025 -WH 2022- HVAC 2022 * Seller Offering $2000 in Closing Costs or Buy Down. 1987 Actual Age-with updates its Effective Age is 2022

18. 2025-12-18
    historical $1,450
19. 2025-10-08
    listed $1,450
20. 2025-10-08
    historical $1,450
21. 2025-10-05
    listed $1,450
22. 2025-07-11
    price $172,000
23. 2025-05-30
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2025-02-25
    price $174,999
25. 2025-01-24
    price $184,500
26. 2024-11-19
    price $189,999
27. 2024-09-10
    status Active
28. 2024-08-22
    status Pending
29. 2024-08-02
    price $196,000
30. 2024-07-17
    price $199,900
31. 2024-06-01
    listed $205,000 Active
32. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $171,000
33. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus $171,000 Sold
34. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus $171,000 Sold
35. 2022-08-24
    status Pending
36. 2022-08-24
    status Pending
37. 2022-08-18
    price $169,000
38. 2022-08-18
    price $169,000
39. 2022-08-01
    listed $179,000 Active
40. 2022-08-01
    listed $179,000 Active
41. 2021-03-17
    historical
42. 2021-03-17
    historical
43. 2021-03-03
    price $80,000
44. 2021-02-24
    price $83,000
45. 2021-01-27
    listed $87,000 Active
46. 2021-01-27
    listed $80,000
47. 1997-07-14
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$810
• After-tax cash flow: $5,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 58,889
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,290
• Household income: $74,369
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.52%
• Current HPI: 261.1557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1788.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-01-27 Listed $170,000 ECAR
• 2025-12-18 Rental Removed $1,450 ECAR
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,450 ECAR
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-05 Listed for Rent $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $172,000 ECAR
• 2025-05-30 Listed $175,000 ECAR
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $174,999 ECAR
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $184,500 ECAR
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $189,999 ECAR
• 2024-09-10 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-08-22 Pending — ECAR
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $196,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $199,900 ECAR
• 2024-06-01 Listed $205,000 ECAR
• 2022-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $171,000 NAMLS
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $171,000 ECAR
• 2022-08-24 Pending — NAMLS
• 2022-08-24 Pending — ECAR
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $169,000 ECAR
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $169,000 NAMLS
• 2022-08-01 Listed $179,000 ECAR
• 2022-08-01 Listed $179,000 NAMLS
• 2021-03-17 Delisted — ECAR
• 2021-03-17 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2021-03-03 Price Changed $80,000 ECAR
• 2021-02-24 Price Changed $83,000 ECAR
• 2021-01-27 Listed $87,000 ECAR
• 2021-01-27 Listed $80,000 NAMLS
• 1997-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,207 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.