7539 Key Deer Ct · Fort Myers, FL 33966

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1997 6,795 sqft lot Est $652k · 39% under $384/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculately cared for 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,928 sq ft home with a side-load two-car garage and soaring cathedral ceilings. Features include a new tile roof (2023), impact-resistant windows, newer A/C, updated appliances, and energy-efficient insulated concrete construction with an average electric bill of $76. The oversized kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a large walk-in pantry. Pocket sliders open to a screened lanai and paver patio overlooking a private, beautifully landscaped outdoor space ideal for both entertaining and relaxation. . Primary suite includes lanai access, dual sinks, soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Casa Del Lago offers gated a

Key facts

• New tile roof
• Oversized kitchen
• Screened lanai

Tags

• NEW TILE ROOF
• IMPACT-RESISTANT WINDOWS
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• SCREENED LANAI
• PAVER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $969 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,971/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 539% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $400k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $651,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7371 Sika Deer Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,113 (+10%)	3mo	$417,500	$198	74
11461 Fallow Deer Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+10%)	23mo	$560,000	$264	60
7370 Key Deer Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,089 (+8%)	15mo	$496,700	$238	60
7565 Sika Deer Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-9%)	21mo	$442,500	$252	60
11131 Wine Palm Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,145 (+11%)	6mo	$730,000	$340	58
7251 Sugar Palm Ct	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,183 (+13%)	6mo	$695,000	$318	56
7671 Cypress Walk Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,111 (+10%)	18mo	$600,000	$284	53
8287 Provencia Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-6%)	6mo	$665,000	$367	52
10519 Wine Palm Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,131 (+10%)	6mo	$720,000	$338	49
11233 Wine Palm Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-13%)	14mo	$585,000	$350	42
8338 Adelio Ln	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,062 (+7%)	12mo	$775,000	$376	40
10545 Curry Palm Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,210 (+15%)	22mo	$775,000	$351	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-17,448
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $8,780
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33966

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,722/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$384
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,044
• Net cashflow: $969

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,744

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,196	-5% $1,082	+0% $969	+5% $856	+10% $743
Rent	-10% $576	-5% $773	+0% $969	+5% $1,166	+10% $1,362
Rate	-1.0pp $1,171	-0.5pp $1,071	base $969	+0.5pp $866	+1.0pp $760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7502 Key Deer Ct Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1713	$1,600	$0.93	22d	1	0.07mi
11761 Adoncia Way #3907 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1435	$7,470	$5.21	20d	1	0.79mi
8320 Esperanza St #1608 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1345	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.80mi
10537 Washingtonia Palm Way #4126 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1662	$7,000	$4.21	24d	1	0.85mi
8471 Olinda Way #3708 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1350	$6,000	$4.44	24d	1	0.85mi
11907 Adoncia Way #3005 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,800	$1.63	2d	1	0.86mi
11907 Adoncia Way #3002 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,600	$1.59	24d	1	0.86mi
8309 Adelio Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1809	$6,500	$3.59	3d	1	0.86mi
7301 Lake Bank Loop Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1234	$3,112	$2.52	2d	124	0.89mi
11830 Paseo Grande Blvd #4607 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1345	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.89mi
11890 Paseo Grande Blvd #4305 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,800	$1.71	4d	1	0.93mi
11890 Paseo Grande Blvd #4305 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,800	$1.71	14d	1	0.93mi
11072 Esteban Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1875	$7,250	$3.87	24d	1	0.96mi
6715 Willow Lake Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.5	2127	$3,600	$1.69	24d	1	0.99mi
8663 Olinda Way #7507 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1452	$2,500	$1.72	24d	1	1.02mi
11845 Palba Way #7301 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2026	$5,900	$2.91	24d	1	1.04mi
10391 Butterfly Palm Dr #1036 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.06mi
11908 Izarra Way #7005 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$5,500	$3.36	24d	1	1.11mi
11908 Izarra Way #7003 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,300	$1.72	16d	1	1.11mi
11875 Izarra Way #8711 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1452	$6,000	$4.13	24d	1	1.12mi
4732 Imperial Eagle Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	1920	$11,000	$5.73	24d	1	1.15mi
8753 Melosia St #8206 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1361	$6,200	$4.56	24d	1	1.16mi
10401 McArthur Palm Ln #2523 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$7,000	$5.00	24d	1	1.16mi
11850 Liana St #9001 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$6,500	$3.88	24d	1	1.16mi
12060 Lucca St #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1688	$2,295	$1.36	24d	1	1.20mi
10361 Butterfly Palm Dr #745 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.21mi
11846 Nalda St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	16d	1	1.23mi
10381 McArthur Palm Ln #2723 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$7,000	$5.00	24d	1	1.24mi
8076 Queen Palm Ln #437 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,000	$4.87	24d	1	1.30mi
11907 Nalda St #11906 Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	2005	$7,500	$3.74	24d	1	1.32mi
10356 White Palm Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$8,000	$4.80	24d	1	1.37mi
12840 Dornoch Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1690	$2,200	$1.30	24d	1	1.37mi
12810 Cypress Cape Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,049	$1.77	2d	17	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $384 · $4,608/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-26
   listed $399,900 Active
3. 2026-01-15
   historical
4. 2025-11-26
   price $440,000
5. 2025-10-01
   listed $455,000 Active
6. 2025-08-31
   historical
7. 2025-05-01
   price $465,000
8. 2025-03-12
   price $474,900
9. 2025-01-03
   status Active
10. 2024-12-01
    historical
11. 2024-10-04
    listed $479,900 Active
12. 2024-09-03
    historical
13. 2024-08-17
    price $485,000
14. 2024-06-11
    price $487,000
15. 2024-03-19
    price $499,000
16. 2024-03-01
    listed $509,400 Active
17. 1997-05-07
    soldstatus $173,900
18. 1995-04-01
    soldstatus $560,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,722 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,722 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,722
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,772
• − Management: −$4,772
• − HOA: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $5,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $10,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,513
• Household income: $84,965
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.16%
• Current HPI: 219.1188
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.28%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $440,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $455,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $465,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $474,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $479,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-08-17 Price Changed $485,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $487,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $499,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listed $509,400 FORTMLS
• 1997-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $173,900 Public Records
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,722 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.