768 E Locust · Piggott, AR 72454

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1988 7,840 sqft lot $49/sqft · 36% below area Est $61k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant occupied, investment property.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $39,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$60,729) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($695 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 4.4% in Piggott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#50 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Piggott School District (town): math 32% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #157 of 238 in AR (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $39k implies a 550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.80%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,729
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -35.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 E Davis St	0.36mi	2/1.0	820 (+3%)	20mo	$21,500	$26	61
165 E Poplar St	0.43mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	7mo	$113,000	$131	60
473 Thornton	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	757 (-5%)	23mo	$26,000	$34	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $41,400
• Equity at exit: $35,134

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.71×
• Total profit: $106,029
• Equity at exit: $75,768

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72454

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $139/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$146
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $294

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
473 S Thornton Ave Piggott, AR	1.0	1.0	757	$695	$0.92	43d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 361 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,000 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,000 Active 355 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,000 Active 354 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2025-06-12
    listed $39,000 New Listing 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Tenant occupied, investment property.

12. 2013-04-19
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $139 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $250 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$111/yr (+$9/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$139
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$667
• − Management: −$667
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $3,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$805
• After-tax cash flow: $2,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Piggott School District
• NCES district ID: 0511370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,336
• Composite: 24.63/100
• National rank: #7628
• State rank: #157 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piggott

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piggott, AR
• Population (ZIP): 4,699

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,564 people
• By 2030: 12,834 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 11,498 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 10,325 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 8,228 · -39.3%
• By 2100: 6,675 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.3% · R 79.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.3pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+60.3 2016: R+29.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.57%
• Current HPI: 355.7877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+550.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Listed $39,000 CARMLS
• 2013-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $139 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.