2 Harmony Arbor Ct · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$765,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1996 10,772 sqft lot Est $620k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfectly located and beautifully finished home on large corner lot in highly desirable Alden Bridge Village directly across from Pleasant Hill Park. This move-in ready home features a stunning pool & spa with large outdoor patio ready for entertaining or relaxation; open kitchen with island and granite countertops & bar with break feast nook connected to family room overlooking the pool area; lots of light throughout the easy-flowing and functional floor plan; formal dining & living with convenient half-bath, gorgeous first level primary bedroom suite with pool view & wood flooring; large primary bathroom with separate jetted tub and walk-in shower; 3 bedrooms upsta

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Large outdoor patio
• Stunning pool

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• STUNNING POOL
• LARGE OUTDOOR PATIO
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot on a cul-de-sac in a subdivision with a pond on the lot; Concrete road surface
• HOA & community: Community amenities include basketball court, dog park, picnic area, playground, park, pool, tennis courts, trails, and trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1996; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Private pool (gunite, in-ground) with pool/spa combo

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14'7" x 19'10"); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (13'4" x 10'9", 10'10" x 9'8", 9'11" x 13'6")
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; Granite counters; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pots & pan drawers; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas, gas log, and wood-burning fireplace; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $765k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $703k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $602k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $602k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($754k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $601,566 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $619,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
68 E Sandalbranch Cir	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,996 (+5%)	1mo	$862,000	$288	80
91 Alden Glen Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,708 (-5%)	2mo	$485,000	$179	75
78 E Stockbridge Landing Cir	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,971 (+4%)	4mo	$609,000	$205	70
27 Emery Mill Pl	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,820 (-1%)	1mo	$540,000	$191	66
118 W Hobbit Glen Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,944 (+4%)	4mo	$525,000	$178	65
106 W Bristol Oak Cir	0.53mi	4/3.5	3,011 (+6%)	5mo	$644,000	$214	58
47 S Bristol Oak Cir	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,980 (+5%)	3mo	$649,000	$218	57
175 W Bristol Oak Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,566 (-10%)	2mo	$575,000	$224	57
47 Barongate	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,223 (+13%)	2mo	$780,000	$242	56
26 Serene Creek Pl	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,570 (-10%)	2mo	$525,000	$204	56
19 E New Avery Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,440 (-14%)	1mo	$545,000	$223	48
58 Trilling Bird Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,603 (-8%)	4mo	$615,000	$236	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-156,897
• Equity at exit: $114,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-206,926
• Equity at exit: $66,143

Cash invested: $214,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax from tax record: −$775 /mo · $9,302/yr
• Insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,263
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,463

Max offer price $702,588

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $191,250
• Closing costs: $22,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	0.41mi
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $765,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $765,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $765,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $765,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $765,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $765,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $765,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $765,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $765,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $765,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $765,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $765,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $765,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $765,000 Active
15. 2004-03-02
    soldstatus
16. 1999-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,302 · $775/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,000 · $1,167/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,697/yr (+$391/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,852
• − Property taxes: −$9,302
• − Insurance: −$3,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,775
• − Management: −$5,775
• − Depreciation: −$22,255
• Taxable loss: −$17,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,223
• After-tax cash flow: $-17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $765,000 HARMLS
• 2004-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,302 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.