11-28 Welling Ct · New York, NY 11102

$1,450,000

6 bd · 0.0 ba · 1,901 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1925 2,212 sqft lot Est $1821k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning two-family home, ideally located in the heart of Astoria. This spacious property features 6 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and 2 half bathrooms, along with an inviting open-concept living and kitchen area that offers both comfort and functionality. Conveniently situated near Vernon Boulevard and within walking distance to public transportation, this home provides easy access to local shops, dining, and commuting options. Please note: The property is being sold with a non-paying tenant in place. No interior access—drive-by only.

Key facts

• Two-family home
• 2,212 sq ft lot
• Built 1925

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community park access

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame, stucco and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Near public transit; Near shops; Near schools; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining area
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Kitchen island; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Finished attic (walkup); Finished full basement with walk-out access

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,450,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,821,158) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.34M (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.34M (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,432/mo this rent would consume 167% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $840k; list at $1.45M implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,343,200 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,821,158
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3004 14th St	0.15mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-5%)	10mo	$1,150,000	$639	63
1822 Astoria Park S	0.48mi	6/4.0	1,960 (+3%)	1mo	$1,910,000	$974	55
23-19 33rd Ave	0.55mi	6/3.0	2,100 (+10%)	10mo	$1,385,000	$660	36
3329 29th St Unit 2FAM	0.74mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-5%)	13mo	$1,725,000	$958	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 4.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $124,461
• Equity at exit: $432,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $582,939
• Equity at exit: $530,075

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11102

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 18.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,016/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,821
• Net cashflow: $2,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,814

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,889	-5% $2,479	+0% $2,068	+5% $1,658	+10% $1,248
Rent	-10% $1,007	-5% $1,538	+0% $2,068	+5% $2,599	+10% $3,130
Rate	-1.0pp $2,799	-0.5pp $2,437	base $2,068	+0.5pp $1,693	+1.0pp $1,310

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$13,432
Total (2 units)			$13,432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $1,450,000 Active
15. 2025-11-01
    historical
16. 2025-05-22
    listed $1,450,000 Active
17. 2025-05-22
    historical
18. 2025-05-21
    listed $1,450,000 Active
19. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $840,000
20. 2019-06-10
    soldstatus $894,000 Closed
21. 2019-02-21
    price $844,900
22. 2019-01-15
    price $864,900
23. 2018-11-28
    price $884,900
24. 2018-07-31
    price $899,900
25. 2018-07-12
    status Back On Market
26. 2018-06-04
    status Under Contract
27. 2018-04-04
    listed $904,900 New
28. 2000-09-25
    soldstatus $273,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,016 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,261 · $1,188/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,244/yr (+$854/mo · 255.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$4,016
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,895
• − Management: −$12,895
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $24,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $96,617
• Rent vs Own: 86.6% rent · 13.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2407.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Asian 15% Two or more races 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 144.3118
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+430.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $840,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-10 Sold (MLS) $894,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Price Changed $844,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-15 Price Changed $864,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Price Changed $884,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-31 Price Changed $899,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-04 Listed $904,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $273,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,016 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.