4953 Hatfield Cir · Valdosta, GA 31632

$429,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2022 10,454 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $423k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!!!!!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Custom cabinets
• Decorative trim

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• DECORATIVE TRIM
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• TILED BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-704 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $430k implies a 877% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,796 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.02%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,378
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: 1.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4961 Hatfield Cir	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,350 (+1%)	2mo	$434,900	$185	94
4868 Brown Cat Cir	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,300 (-1%)	1mo	$414,900	$180	93
4860 Brown Cat Cir	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,242 (-3%)	2mo	$425,000	$190	88
4720 San Saba Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,324 (+0%)	2mo	$398,900	$172	82
5028 Hatfield Cir	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,523 (+9%)	1mo	$526,845	$209	80
3045 Houser Way	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,125 (-8%)	2mo	$412,400	$194	80
4683 Amelia Cir	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,187 (-6%)	2mo	$377,500	$173	78
4501 Chickasaw Cir	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,267 (-2%)	1mo	$370,000	$163	71
4596 Amelia Cir	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,072 (-11%)	1mo	$331,500	$160	68
4693 San Saba Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,127 (-8%)	1mo	$419,000	$197	67
3835 Lu Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,067 (-11%)	2mo	$317,000	$153	43
3828 Lu Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,023 (-13%)	2mo	$332,524	$164	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $189,230
• Equity at exit: $387,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $592,320
• Equity at exit: $835,201

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,965/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,499

Max offer price $305,593

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-460	-5% $-582	+0% $-704	+5% $-825	+10% $-947
Rent	-10% $-910	-5% $-807	+0% $-704	+5% $-601	+10% $-498
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-594	base $-704	+0.5pp $-815	+1.0pp $-928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	21d	1	0.32mi
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	21d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $429,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $429,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Back On Market 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Back On Market 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $429,900 Back On Market 77 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   status Under Contract 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of Buyer's Closing Costs!!!!

7. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of Buyer's Closing Costs!!!!

8. 2026-03-25
   price $429,900 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of Buyer's Closing Costs!!!!

9. 2026-03-25
   price $429,900 867-char remark

   Show marketing remark (867 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of Buyer's Closing Costs!!!!

10. 2026-03-15
    price $439,900 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!!!!!

11. 2026-03-15
    price $439,900 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!!!!!

12. 2026-02-19
    listed $445,000 Active 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of Buyer's Closing Costs!!!!

13. 2026-02-06
    listed $445,000 New 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP!!! This home which is only a couple years old is BETTER THAN NEW!!! Owner has added hardwood flooring to the front bedroom (currently being used as an office). Also added decorative trim to the primary bedroom as well as the front office/bedroom. Split bedrooms, open floor plan. Kitchen complete with custom cabinets, granite counter tops, large island, tiled backsplash with cooktop and vent hood and stainless steel appliances including refrigerator. Master bathroom complete with double vanity, tiled shower and garden tub. Lots of upgrades in this house! Screened in back porch. Grove Pointe offers pickleball courts, playground and community pools located on common area. Property qualifies for 100% USDA financing to qualified buyer(s). Owner has added many upgrades to property. SELLER IS OFFERING TO PAY $5000 of BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!!!!!

14. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $44,000
15. 2022-07-29
    soldstatus $418,400
16. 2022-04-21
    listed $409,900
17. 2021-01-20
    soldstatus $308,000
18. 2020-05-21
    listed $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$3,965
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$16,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,939
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+877.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $429,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $429,900 SGMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $439,900 SGMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $439,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $445,000 SGMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $445,000 GAMLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (MLS) $44,000 SGMLS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) $418,400 SGMLS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $409,900 SGMLS
• 2021-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $308,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-21 Listed $44,000 SGMLS

Property tax history

+92.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,965 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.