1580 Pr 1518 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2020 Average condition $117/sqft · at area comps Est $130k · at est. $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming residence in Bandera, built in 2019 and situated on a level 0.31-acre lot. This 1,100 sq. ft. property features durable vinyl flooring and a functional layout with original kitchen and bathroom finishes, complemented by classic formica countertops. Enjoy the outdoors on the recently added deck, perfect for relaxing in the Texas Hill Country. The structure is set on a sturdy brick foundation and includes a roof and central cooling system from the original construction. Ideal for those seeking a modern build in a peaceful setting near Medina Lake amenities.

Key facts

• Recently added deck
• Built 2020
• Listed 130 days

Tags

• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• ORIGINAL KITCHEN FINISHES
• ORIGINAL BATHROOM FINISHES
• CLASSIC FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• RECENTLY ADDED DECK
• STURDY BRICK FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.35%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,999
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 3.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,932
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $47,463
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	44d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-03-11
   price $135,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Discover this charming residence in Bandera, built in 2019 and situated on a level 0.31-acre lot. This 1,100 sq. ft. property features durable vinyl flooring and a functional layout with original kitchen and bathroom finishes, complemented by classic formica countertops. Enjoy the outdoors on the recently added deck, perfect for relaxing in the Texas Hill Country. The structure is set on a sturdy brick foundation and includes a roof and central cooling system from the original construction. Ideal for those seeking a modern build in a peaceful setting near Medina Lake amenities.

6. 2026-02-17
   price $140,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Discover this charming residence in Bandera, built in 2019 and situated on a level 0.31-acre lot. This 1,100 sq. ft. property features durable vinyl flooring and a functional layout with original kitchen and bathroom finishes, complemented by classic formica countertops. Enjoy the outdoors on the recently added deck, perfect for relaxing in the Texas Hill Country. The structure is set on a sturdy brick foundation and includes a roof and central cooling system from the original construction. Ideal for those seeking a modern build in a peaceful setting near Medina Lake amenities.

7. 2026-02-04
   price $150,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Discover this charming residence in Bandera, built in 2019 and situated on a level 0.31-acre lot. This 1,100 sq. ft. property features durable vinyl flooring and a functional layout with original kitchen and bathroom finishes, complemented by classic formica countertops. Enjoy the outdoors on the recently added deck, perfect for relaxing in the Texas Hill Country. The structure is set on a sturdy brick foundation and includes a roof and central cooling system from the original construction. Ideal for those seeking a modern build in a peaceful setting near Medina Lake amenities.

8. 2026-01-23
   listed $159,000 New 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Discover this charming residence in Bandera, built in 2019 and situated on a level 0.31-acre lot. This 1,100 sq. ft. property features durable vinyl flooring and a functional layout with original kitchen and bathroom finishes, complemented by classic formica countertops. Enjoy the outdoors on the recently added deck, perfect for relaxing in the Texas Hill Country. The structure is set on a sturdy brick foundation and includes a roof and central cooling system from the original construction. Ideal for those seeking a modern build in a peaceful setting near Medina Lake amenities.

9. 2024-03-01
   historical
10. 2024-01-04
    price $155,000
11. 2023-11-30
    listed $165,000 New
12. 2023-09-15
    historical
13. 2023-04-24
    listed $172,500 New
14. 2023-04-20
    historical
15. 2022-10-24
    listed $172,500 New
16. 2022-10-19
    historical
17. 2022-07-08
    price $175,000
18. 2022-05-08
    listed $181,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,022/yr (+$85/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$926
• After-tax cash flow: $4,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 2019 manufactured home in Bandera, TX, offers a functional layout with original finishes and a level lot. While in average condition, it requires moderate repairs and maintenance to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Play structure — Some debris around the play structure.
• Minor Playground equipment — Some debris around the playground equipment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal.
• Both HVAC upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Play structure · Some debris around the play structure.	Minor	$500–3,000
Playground equipment · Some debris around the playground equipment.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal. ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2026-01-23 Listed $159,000 LERA
• 2024-03-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $155,000 LERA
• 2023-11-30 Listed $165,000 LERA
• 2023-09-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-04-24 Listed $172,500 LERA
• 2023-04-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-10-24 Listed $172,500 LERA
• 2022-10-19 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $175,000 LERA
• 2022-05-08 Listed $181,000 LERA

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.