780 Todd St · Beaumont, TX 77707

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1968 0.45 ac lot $120/sqft · 17% above area Est $148k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath retreat with a cozy country vibe! Unwind in the sunroom or soak in the classic claw-foot tub. Featuring a Generac generator, a covered patio, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining, this 1,444 sq ft home offers ample space and potential to make it your own. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Spacious backyard
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• CLAW-FOOT TUB
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.19%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,839
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 8.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9510 Shepherd Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,302 (+4%)	1mo	$182,000	$140	65
9610 Josey St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,192 (-4%)	16mo	$100,000	$84	59
9410 Guy Cir	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,282 (+3%)	10mo	$178,000	$139	55
9385 Shepherd Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-8%)	9mo	$139,000	$121	46
9310 Shepherd Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (-9%)	5mo	$112,900	$100	43
1745 Shirley Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (+10%)	8mo	$195,000	$143	42
9310 Josey St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+13%)	16mo	$69,000	$49	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,257
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,536
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77707

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,191/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9260 Josey St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	43d	1	0.54mi
9245 Shepherd Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,350	$1.35	13d	1	0.60mi
9225 Shepherd Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,495	$1.32	43d	1	0.62mi
120 Smelker St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,795	$1.38	13d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Pending 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Pending 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Pending 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Pending 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Pending 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Pending 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Pending 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   status $150,000 Pending 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,191
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $2,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809670
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,683
• Composite: 15.43/100
• National rank: #9316
• State rank: #789 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beaumont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #13710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beaumont, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 125,901
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,323
• Household income: $69,756
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 596.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.16%
• Current HPI: 167.8109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,191 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.