4380 County Road 40 · Arley, AL 35541

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1995 0.60 ac lot $71/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 3 bedroom 2 bath on 0.6 +/- acres with a metal roof nestled just minutes from downtown Arley and Smith Lake. Enjoy the peace and quiet on the back deck overlooking the spacious back yard. With a little TLC this home would make for an awesome investment opportunity or someone looking to downsize. cash, conventional, or rehab loan only!!!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Spacious back yard
• Back deck

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• BACK DECK
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($967 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Winston County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #91 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.21%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,253
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -75.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $6,569
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $28,805
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35541

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $305	+0% $281	+5% $257	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $243	+0% $281	+5% $319	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $299	base $281	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $69,900 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom 2 bath on 0.6 +/- acres with a metal roof nestled just minutes from downtown Arley and Smith Lake. Enjoy the peace and quiet on the back deck overlooking the spacious back yard. With a little TLC this home would make for an awesome investment opportunity or someone looking to downsize. cash, conventional, or rehab loan only!!!

17. 2026-04-01
    price $74,900 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom 2 bath on 0.6 +/- acres with a metal roof nestled just minutes from downtown Arley and Smith Lake. Enjoy the peace and quiet on the back deck overlooking the spacious back yard. With a little TLC this home would make for an awesome investment opportunity or someone looking to downsize. cash, conventional, or rehab loan only!!!

18. 2026-03-14
    listed $79,900 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom 2 bath on 0.6 +/- acres with a metal roof nestled just minutes from downtown Arley and Smith Lake. Enjoy the peace and quiet on the back deck overlooking the spacious back yard. With a little TLC this home would make for an awesome investment opportunity or someone looking to downsize. cash, conventional, or rehab loan only!!!

19. 2018-12-12
    soldstatus $86,345

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$928
• − Management: −$928
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$576
• After-tax cash flow: $2,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston County
• NCES district ID: 0103580
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,471
• Composite: 21.39/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #91 of 129 in AL

Livability — Arley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #15542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,125

Population outlook (Winston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,474 people
• By 2030: 21,568 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 19,710 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · -20.1%
• By 2075: 14,468 · -35.6%
• By 2100: 11,554 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Winston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.6) · D 7.9% · R 91.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.3pp · 2024: -83.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.6 2020: R+81.7 2016: R+81.5 2012: R+72.3 2008: R+63.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.55%
• Current HPI: 215.0812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $69,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $74,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $79,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2018-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $86,345 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $86 · -64.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.