404 Bonnie Brae Ave SE · Warren, OH 44484

$140,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1920 $95/sqft · 40% above area Est $152k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful open floor plan with a high end rustic touch, one of a kind Craftsmanship. Amazing all around

Key facts

• 5 garage spots
• Built 1920
• Listed 136 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($126/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $140k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,843 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,615
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -7.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
356 Laird Ave SE	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	6mo	$127,000	$90	78
156 Bonnie Brae Ave NE	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-3%)	3mo	$145,500	$101	73
179 Logan Ave NE	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,528 (+3%)	9mo	$110,000	$72	66
710 Woodbine Ave SE	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,578 (+7%)	6mo	$93,000	$59	63
1180 Harrison St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (-7%)	1mo	$89,900	$65	60
852 Kenilworth Ave SE	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+12%)	2mo	$144,000	$87	57
223 Laird Ave NE	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (-13%)	6mo	$144,900	$113	50
431 Roselawn Ave NE	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,595 (+8%)	1mo	$240,000	$150	48
265 Charles Ave NE	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-12%)	6mo	$118,000	$91	46
628 St Clair Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+5%)	5mo	$15,000	$10	44
221 Kenmore Ave SE	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,696 (+15%)	5mo	$155,420	$92	38
598 High St NE	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,279 (-14%)	9mo	$96,000	$75	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-22,058
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,514
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44484

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
341 Charles AVE Warren, OH	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	43d	1	0.20mi
407 Washington St NE Niles, OH	3.0	1.5	1388	$1,250	$0.90	13d	1	0.95mi
1216 Hollywood St NE Warren, OH	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,050	$0.91	21d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-01-30
    listed $140,000 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Beautiful open floor plan with a high end rustic touch, one of a kind Craftsmanship. Amazing all around

18. 2022-06-13
    soldstatus $58,500 Closed 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    404 Bonnie Brae SE is a spacious 4 bedroom home that you don't want to miss for this price in this market! Move in or add to your investment portfolio. It is currently a rental at $700/ month- tenant pays utilities. And they would like to stay if possible. The large front porch is welcoming and this home has a 2 car garage with electric, as well as a nice sized backyard. The auditor's website states that this is either Howland Schools OR Warren City Schools. Buyers should do due diligence to make certain, though.

19. 2022-06-13
    soldstatus $58,500

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    404 Bonnie Brae SE is a spacious 4 bedroom home that you don't want to miss for this price in this market! Move in or add to your investment portfolio. It is currently a rental at $700/ month- tenant pays utilities. And they would like to stay if possible. The large front porch is welcoming and this home has a 2 car garage with electric, as well as a nice sized backyard. The auditor's website states that this is either Howland Schools OR Warren City Schools. Buyers should do due diligence to make certain, though.

20. 2022-05-05
    status Pending 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    404 Bonnie Brae SE is a spacious 4 bedroom home that you don't want to miss for this price in this market! Move in or add to your investment portfolio. It is currently a rental at $700/ month- tenant pays utilities. And they would like to stay if possible. The large front porch is welcoming and this home has a 2 car garage with electric, as well as a nice sized backyard. The auditor's website states that this is either Howland Schools OR Warren City Schools. Buyers should do due diligence to make certain, though.

21. 2022-04-26
    listed $55,000 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    404 Bonnie Brae SE is a spacious 4 bedroom home that you don't want to miss for this price in this market! Move in or add to your investment portfolio. It is currently a rental at $700/ month- tenant pays utilities. And they would like to stay if possible. The large front porch is welcoming and this home has a 2 car garage with electric, as well as a nice sized backyard. The auditor's website states that this is either Howland Schools OR Warren City Schools. Buyers should do due diligence to make certain, though.

22. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
23. 2020-12-06
    status Pending
24. 2020-11-09
    listed $41,000 Active
25. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus $19,000 Sold
26. 2019-04-11
    status Pending
27. 2019-03-29
    historical Contingent
28. 2019-03-23
    price $23,900
29. 2019-02-26
    price $28,800
30. 2019-01-12
    listed $32,000 Active
31. 2008-10-20
    soldstatus $56,000
32. 2008-10-17
    soldstatus $56,000
33. 2008-10-13
    historical
34. 2008-04-13
    listed $63,900
35. 1996-10-17
    historical
36. 1996-10-07
    soldstatus $38,860
37. 1996-06-16
    listed $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,575 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,634
• Household income: $65,435
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6.7

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.24%
• Current HPI: 217.6603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+254.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $140,000 Fizber.com
• 2022-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 2022-06-13 Sold (MLS) $58,500 MLSNOW
• 2022-05-05 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2022-04-26 Listed $55,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-12-06 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2020-11-09 Listed $41,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-05-03 Sold (MLS) $19,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-04-11 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-29 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-23 Price Changed $23,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-02-26 Price Changed $28,800 MLSNOW
• 2019-01-12 Listed $32,000 MLSNOW
• 2008-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-17 Sold (MLS) $56,000 MLSNOW
• 2008-10-13 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2008-04-13 Listed $63,900 MLSNOW
• 1996-10-17 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1996-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $38,860 Public Records
• 1996-06-16 Listed $39,500 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.