302 Flamingo St · Sargent, TX 77414

$29,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1970 5,270 sqft lot $62/sqft · 84% below area $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Bay City, 302 Flamingo Dr. offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking for a lot to build new. The existing structure is being sold as-is, where-is, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Property is priced at lot value and presents potential for redevelopment, renovation, or new construction. Conveniently situated near local shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, with easy access to major roadways. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a short drive from the Texas Gulf Coast, including nearby beaches such as Matagorda, known for fishing, boating, and coastal recreation. Enjoy the benefit of small-town living while staying close to the water.

Key facts

• Nearby beaches
• Small-town living
• 5,270 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS
• POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• NEARBY BEACHES
• SMALL-TOWN LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-12/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $30k (0.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van Vleck El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 303 students, 58% FRL); Van Vleck Jr H S (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 243 students, 59% FRL); Van Vleck H S (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 355 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.00%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,374
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -83.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-4,405
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-1,859
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $29,756

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $9	+0% $-1	+5% $-11	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-33	+0% $-1	+5% $31	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $7	base $-1	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $29,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,900 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-02-13
    listed $29,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Located in Bay City, 302 Flamingo Dr. offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking for a lot to build new. The existing structure is being sold as-is, where-is, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Property is priced at lot value and presents potential for redevelopment, renovation, or new construction. Conveniently situated near local shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, with easy access to major roadways. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a short drive from the Texas Gulf Coast, including nearby beaches such as Matagorda, known for fishing, boating, and coastal recreation. Enjoy the benefit of small-town living while staying close to the water.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥116°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable loss: −$193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $34/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Vleck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843950
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,348
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6106
• State rank: #492 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sargent

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sargent, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $29,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,558 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.