10100 Pioneer Trl #100 · Truckee, CA 96161

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $313k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located in Truckee for easy access to all ski resorts and mountain recreation. Lots of newer upgrades (exterior paint, hot water heater and flooring), built in entertainment center, in floor radiant heat, soaking tub and two sinks in master bath. 4th bedroom may be used for an office as it has double doors and opens into the livingroom. Back porch is enclosed and there is a nice meadow behind this lovely home.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Premium homesite
• Open space

Tags

• PREMIUM HOMESITE
• OPEN SPACE
• EXTENSIVE TRAIL SYSTEM
• LARGE DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association amenities include exercise equipment and additional community features; Has an association; Not gated

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad; No garage
• Utilities: Propane service; Water from utility district; Sewer to utility district
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile Home; One level; Level topography; Street-front lot; Trees/Woods view; Property described as used and fixer
• Construction: Shake/Shingle roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Deck

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; In-floor heating
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Family room; Woodstove in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer, Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,304/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $280k implies a 273% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.72%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,654
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10100 Pioneer Trl #101	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-8%)	1mo	$359,000	$266	86
10100 Pioneer Trl #1	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	8mo	$300,000	$214	82
10100 Pioneer Trl #42	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	10mo	$284,000	$182	77
10100 Pioneer Trl #13	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-9%)	17mo	$310,000	$233	65
10100 Pioneer Trl #52	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-14%)	15mo	$265,000	$211	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $135,513
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $412,809
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,114
• Net cashflow: $2,530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,101

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10085 Nicolas Dr Unit A Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1871	$5,500	$2.94	43d	1	0.94mi
10192 Schaffer Dr Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$4,495	$2.93	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $280,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,229/yr (+$102/mo · 136.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥87°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,091
• − Management: −$5,091
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $27,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,559
• After-tax cash flow: $23,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+211.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $280,000 TSMLS
• 2018-10-25 Sold (MLS) $75,000 TSMLS
• 2014-01-03 Delisted — TSMLS
• 2013-12-21 Listed $88,000 TSMLS
• 2009-08-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 TSMLS
• 2009-05-20 Delisted — TSMLS
• 2009-05-20 Listed $90,000 TSMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.