123 Frio · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$105,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1996 10,018 sqft lot $86/sqft · 30% below area Est $150k · 30% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market at no fault of the seller! Motivated seller - bring all reasonable offers! Seller financing available with the right terms. This property is a rare opportunity for someone looking for privacy, space, and potential at an affordable price. Situated behind a solar powered gate on two beautiful lots, this home offers a secluded setting with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large screenedin back porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. There's plenty of room for vehicles and storage with a two-car carport and an additional storage shed. The community pool is within walking distance, making it easy to enjoy the amenities without the hassle. HOA presence is minimal - they rarely bother you, giving you the freedom to enjoy the property as you wish. This home does need work, and the price reflects that. It's an older property with some known issues, making it ideal for someone who wants a project, an investor, or a buyer who wants instant equity with some TLC. For the right person, this is a chance to create something special on a great piece of land. Seller is open to owner financing with a strong down payment and a short-term note (up to 8 years). If you're looking for affordability, privacy, and potential - this is the one to see!

Key facts

• Privately gated
• Covered parking
• Extra storage shed

Tags

• PRIVATELY GATED
• 2 BEAUTIFUL LOTS
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• COVERED PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE SHED
• WALKING DISTANCE FROM THE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 544 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.70%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -30.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Cedar Hill Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (0%)	14mo	$114,900	$94	64
721 Tejas Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	2mo	$150,000	$138	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,464
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $37,944
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 544
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $414	+0% $385	+5% $355	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $333	+0% $385	+5% $436	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $411	base $385	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Brushy Creek Trl Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	8d	1	0.39mi
149 Vint Bonner Dr Unit 149V Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,150	$0.92	25d	1	0.45mi
551 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 2 Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    status Back on Market 1291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1291 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of the seller! Motivated seller - bring all reasonable offers! Seller financing available with the right terms. This property is a rare opportunity for someone looking for privacy, space, and potential at an affordable price. Situated behind a solar powered gate on two beautiful lots, this home offers a secluded setting with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large screenedin back porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. There's plenty of room for vehicles and storage with a two-car carport and an additional storage shed. The community pool is within walking distance, making it easy to enjoy the amenities without the hassle. HOA presence is minimal - they rarely bother you, giving you the freedom to enjoy the property as you wish. This home does need work, and the price reflects that. It's an older property with some known issues, making it ideal for someone who wants a project, an investor, or a buyer who wants instant equity with some TLC. For the right person, this is a chance to create something special on a great piece of land. Seller is open to owner financing with a strong down payment and a short-term note (up to 8 years). If you're looking for affordability, privacy, and potential - this is the one to see!

15. 2026-02-27
    status Pending 1291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1291 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of the seller! Motivated seller - bring all reasonable offers! Seller financing available with the right terms. This property is a rare opportunity for someone looking for privacy, space, and potential at an affordable price. Situated behind a solar powered gate on two beautiful lots, this home offers a secluded setting with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large screenedin back porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. There's plenty of room for vehicles and storage with a two-car carport and an additional storage shed. The community pool is within walking distance, making it easy to enjoy the amenities without the hassle. HOA presence is minimal - they rarely bother you, giving you the freedom to enjoy the property as you wish. This home does need work, and the price reflects that. It's an older property with some known issues, making it ideal for someone who wants a project, an investor, or a buyer who wants instant equity with some TLC. For the right person, this is a chance to create something special on a great piece of land. Seller is open to owner financing with a strong down payment and a short-term note (up to 8 years). If you're looking for affordability, privacy, and potential - this is the one to see!

16. 2026-01-30
    listed $105,000 New 1291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1291 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of the seller! Motivated seller - bring all reasonable offers! Seller financing available with the right terms. This property is a rare opportunity for someone looking for privacy, space, and potential at an affordable price. Situated behind a solar powered gate on two beautiful lots, this home offers a secluded setting with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large screenedin back porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. There's plenty of room for vehicles and storage with a two-car carport and an additional storage shed. The community pool is within walking distance, making it easy to enjoy the amenities without the hassle. HOA presence is minimal - they rarely bother you, giving you the freedom to enjoy the property as you wish. This home does need work, and the price reflects that. It's an older property with some known issues, making it ideal for someone who wants a project, an investor, or a buyer who wants instant equity with some TLC. For the right person, this is a chance to create something special on a great piece of land. Seller is open to owner financing with a strong down payment and a short-term note (up to 8 years). If you're looking for affordability, privacy, and potential - this is the one to see!

17. 2013-04-24
    soldstatus
18. 2013-04-17
    soldstatus 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Oakwood singlewide located on 2 pretty lots. Secluded with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths & a great screened in backporch. Nice storage building, 2 car carport, spacious & with plenty of storage.

19. 2013-03-11
    historical 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Oakwood singlewide located on 2 pretty lots. Secluded with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths & a great screened in backporch. Nice storage building, 2 car carport, spacious & with plenty of storage.

20. 2011-03-17
    listed $44,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Oakwood singlewide located on 2 pretty lots. Secluded with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths & a great screened in backporch. Nice storage building, 2 car carport, spacious & with plenty of storage.

21. 2006-05-16
    soldstatus
22. 2006-05-16
    soldstatus
23. 2006-01-31
    listed $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,327/yr (+$111/mo · 223.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $3,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-02-27 Pending — LERA
• 2026-01-30 Listed $105,000 LERA
• 2013-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-17 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2013-03-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-03-17 Listed $44,000 LERA
• 2006-05-16 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-01-31 Listed $56,500 LERA

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.