15155 White City Rd · Elba, NY 14411

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1898 1.50 ac lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $191k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come on in to 15155 White City Road, where modern updates meet peaceful country living. This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home has been thoughtfully upgraded from top to bottom, offering move-in ready convenience with stylish finishes throughout. Not a single room has gone untouched, creating a clean, cohesive feel you'll notice the moment you walk in. Major improvements provide peace of mind, including: a * * brand new * * metal roof in 2026, a new water softener system, updated windows throughout, and a newly installed sump pump (2026). The home also features a formal mud room and first-floor laundry, adding everyday functionality and ease. Step outside and enjoy everything

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1898

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Above-ground pool; Gravel driveway; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Poultry coop; Rural, agricultural and irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($560/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#901 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Albion Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #479 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald L Sodoma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,415 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 820 students, 57% FRL); Carl I Bergerson Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 403 students, 62% FRL); Charles D'Amico High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 514 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $185k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,326 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,679
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -3.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,033
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,883
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14411

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $99	+0% $47	+5% $-6	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-14	+0% $47	+5% $108	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $94	base $47	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,900 Active 1449-char remark
18. 2024-05-15
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 53.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $1,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albion Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602520
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,408
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4541
• State rank: #479 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elba

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #17545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,479

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.68%
• Current HPI: 302.9236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+269.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $194,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,510 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.