Egret III Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$676,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Good condition Garage $291/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

At Star Farms at Lakewood Ranch, ranked Lakewood Ranch's number one best-selling village, the Egret III brings its efficient, open-concept design to one of the area's most sought-after addresses. Main living areas flow into each other without wasted space, while elegant front windows and entryways lend distinctive curb appeal that varies by elevation. A flexible bedroom configuration, from 2 to 4 bedrooms with 3 baths and a 2- to 3-car garage, adapts easily to a growing family, live-in guests, or a dedicated home office.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 164 days

🏗️ New construction. The $676,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $775,199.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $677k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 574 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($596k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $366,913 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.20%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $775,199
• List price: $676,990
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4940 Surfside Cir	0.52mi	3/3.5	2,560 (-2%)	3mo	$880,000	$344	68
4322 Honeybee Ct	0.31mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,787 (+6%)	3mo	$718,000	$258	66
16228 Tradewind Ter	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,650 (+1%)	0mo	$872,500	$329	64
16319 Mount Holly Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,702 (+3%)	2mo	$700,000	$259	62
17814 Cropside Trl	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,624 (0%)	1mo	$875,000	$333	60
17842 Cropside Trl	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,624 (0%)	2mo	$693,003	$264	58
4733 Sweet Retreat Run	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,314 (-12%)	1mo	$643,500	$278	57
4921 Surfside Cir	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,318 (-12%)	0mo	$830,000	$358	53
5018 Surfside Cir	0.52mi	3/3.0	3,000 (+14%)	2mo	$1,062,500	$354	50
17846 Cropside Trl	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,740 (+4%)	2mo	$699,632	$255	49
5066 Simons Ct	0.70mi	3/3.0	3,000 (+14%)	3mo	$1,239,000	$413	41
3408 Bitterroot Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-14%)	2mo	$472,060	$209	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-250,938
• Equity at exit: $179,755

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-428,551
• Equity at exit: $182,548

Cash invested: $217,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 89 active · 86 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $754,990 ($291/sqft)
• Median days on market: 158 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 574
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$969 /mo · $11,628/yr
• Insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$291
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $-2,750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,150

Max offer price $377,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,214	-5% $-2,482	+0% $-2,750	+5% $-3,017	+10% $-3,285
Rent	-10% $-3,039	-5% $-2,895	+0% $-2,750	+5% $-2,605	+10% $-2,460
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,359	-0.5pp $-2,552	base $-2,750	+0.5pp $-2,950	+1.0pp $-3,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,800
• Closing costs: $23,256
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17534 Savory Mist Cir Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2195	$3,950	$1.80	0d	1	0.32mi
16905 Sweetwater Village Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	4.0	3284	$5,300	$1.61	119d	1	0.40mi
4216 Pond Brook Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2419	$9,000	$3.72	2d	1	0.58mi
16403 Umbria Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	3.0	3004	$5,750	$1.91	2d	1	0.62mi
17707 Gulf Ranch Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,690	$1.80	78d	1	0.65mi
16921 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$3,250	$1.44	119d	1	0.69mi
18145 Beach Ranch Ter Unit R Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$3,950	$1.93	0d	1	0.75mi
18145 Beach Ranch Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$4,000	$1.96	7d	1	0.75mi
3394 Hilltop Cir Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$3,600	$1.59	107d	1	0.76mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	119d	1	0.79mi
3379 Hilltop Cir Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2360	$3,100	$1.31	119d	1	0.79mi
17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,950	$1.65	119d	1	0.79mi
16126 San Donato Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1926	$5,500	$2.86	119d	1	0.80mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	111d	1	0.83mi
17436 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$3,100	$1.68	6d	1	0.84mi
18123 Gulf Ranch Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$4,250	$2.30	2d	1	0.85mi
17710 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,400	$1.23	73d	1	0.89mi
19226 Cherrystone Way #102 , FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,995	$1.42	6d	1	0.89mi
16117 Isola Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1926	$3,600	$1.87	2d	1	0.90mi
3263 Alba Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1926	$6,000	$3.12	88d	1	0.92mi
5105 Vecchio Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,900	$1.59	82d	1	0.92mi
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	119d	1	0.92mi
17819 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,680	$1.47	62d	1	0.94mi
17821 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	82d	1	0.99mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	80d	1	0.99mi
17918 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,800	$1.53	9d	1	0.99mi
5125 Tannin Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2700	$4,200	$1.56	4d	1	1.00mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$8,900	$3.78	93d	1	1.01mi
2725 Georgina CIR Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	2094	$2,549	$1.22	0d	42	1.02mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,700	$1.14	9d	1	1.02mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	99d	1	1.02mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,300	$1.61	82d	1	1.03mi
5329 Halewood Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2728	$3,600	$1.32	65d	1	1.04mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	119d	1	1.05mi
18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,300	$1.81	119d	1	1.06mi
16921 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2787	$3,800	$1.36	65d	1	1.07mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	107d	1	1.08mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	119d	1	1.08mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	119d	1	1.09mi
5119 Adega Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,990	$1.64	0d	1	1.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $676,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Egret III)Located in Lakewood Ranch, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2434

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Egret IIIActive new construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $676,990 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $676,990 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $676,990 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $676,990 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $676,990 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $676,990 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $676,990 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $676,990 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $676,990 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $676,990 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $676,990 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    pricedays on market $676,990 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $786,043 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $786,043 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $676,990 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $676,990 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $676,990 Active 140 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $676,990 Active 139 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $676,990 Active 138 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $676,990 Active 137 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $676,990 Active 136 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $676,990 Active 135 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $676,990 Active 134 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $676,990 Active 133 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $676,990 Active 132 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $676,990 Active 131 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $676,990 Active 130 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $676,990 Active 129 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $676,990 Active 128 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $676,990 Active 127 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $676,990 Active 126 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $676,990 Active 125 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $676,990 Active 124 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $676,990 Active 123 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $676,990 Active 122 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $676,990 Active 121 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $676,990 Active 120 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $676,990 Active 119 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $676,990 Active 118 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $676,990 Active 117 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $676,990 Active 116 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $676,990 Active 115 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $676,990 Active 111 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $676,990 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $676,990 Active 108 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $676,990 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $676,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $676,990 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $676,990 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,423
• − Property taxes: −$11,628
• − Insurance: −$3,876
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,522
• − Management: −$3,522
• − HOA: −$3,492
• − Depreciation: −$22,551
• Taxable loss: −$47,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,517
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,120–$39,360 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $676,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Egret III)Located in Lakewood Ranch, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2434

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Egret IIIActive new construction plan