209 E 10th St · Covington, KY 41011

$183,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

1,300 sqft lot Est $153k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 Bdrm, 2 bath, newer furnace, tenant pays $500/mo rent

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• New vanity
• Tile tub surround

Tags

• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE TUB SURROUND
• NEW VANITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Residential farm property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Stone foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl window frames; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (15 x 14); Second bedroom (12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; Laundry on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $184k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.80%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 E 13th St	0.31mi	2/1.0	825 (+2%)	7mo	$158,500	$192	77
1310 Russell St	0.47mi	2/1.0	765 (-6%)	0mo	$179,000	$234	68
531 Lindsey St	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	777 (-4%)	6mo	$174,900	$225	65
319 Elm St	0.56mi	2/1.5	850 (+5%)	0mo	$160,000	$188	64
1506 St Clair St	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	816 (+0%)	5mo	$117,000	$143	55
328 W Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	0.57mi	2/1.0	708 (-13%)	1mo	$79,000	$112	51
1006 Liberty St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	868 (+7%)	3mo	$86,900	$100	50
936 York St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	882 (+9%)	1mo	$205,000	$232	49
939 Liberty St	0.66mi	2/1.5	720 (-11%)	2mo	$90,000	$125	46
1319 Holman Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	928 (+14%)	7mo	$168,000	$181	43
835 Ann St	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	734 (-10%)	5mo	$167,900	$229	40
408 E 16th St	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-14%)	6mo	$127,500	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,493
• Equity at exit: $27,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,075
• Equity at exit: $15,900

Cash invested: $51,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$964
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $183,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,975
• Closing costs: $5,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.11mi
634 Greenup St Covington, KY	1.0	1.5	1050	$1,595	$1.52	7d	1	0.23mi
521 Garrard St Apt 1 Covington, KY	1.0	1.5	825	$1,895	$2.30	17d	1	0.32mi
521 Garrard St Apt 2 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,595	$2.20	17d	1	0.32mi
521 Garrard St Apt 3 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	875	$1,996	$2.28	14d	1	0.32mi
521 Garrard St Apt 4 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	17d	1	0.32mi
521 Garrard St Apt 6 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	775	$1,995	$2.57	16d	1	0.32mi
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	23d	1	0.33mi
303 Greenup St Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	678	$1,445	$2.13	23d	1	0.54mi
218 W 5th St Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,595	$1.99	14d	1	0.56mi
1205 Lee St Unit 1 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	675	$1,350	$2.00	23d	1	0.60mi
1205 Lee St Unit 2 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.60mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	1d	9	0.70mi
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	1d	8	0.70mi
210 W 5th St Newport, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,800	$2.13	3d	15	0.72mi
128 W 9th St Newport, KY	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,650	$1.63	2d	1	0.74mi
1114 Columbia St Unit 2 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	43d	1	0.84mi
911 Putnam St #2 Newport, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	0.85mi
835 York St Unit 2 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	17d	1	0.90mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	23d	1	0.94mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 3 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	14d	1	0.94mi
415 Monmouth St Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	2d	5	1.03mi
121 E Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,999	$3.03	1d	27	1.12mi
920 Washington Ave Unit 10 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$955	$1.59	23d	1	1.14mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/18 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	7d	1	1.14mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/16 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$939	$1.71	7d	1	1.14mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/09 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	7d	1	1.14mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/08 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	17d	1	1.15mi
229 E 5th St Unit 1 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	43d	1	1.16mi
44 W Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$2,859	$3.03	1d	28	1.17mi
100 Aqua Way Newport, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$2,834	$2.60	1d	4	1.20mi
621 E Mehring Way Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,249	$2.40	1d	12	1.29mi
309 Sycamore St #201 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	1.29mi
309 Vine St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,467	$2.58	1d	15	1.30mi
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	43d	1	1.33mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	1d	10	1.33mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	1.34mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1002 3 Park Hills, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	7d	1	1.34mi
1 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.5	1675	$6,550	$3.91	3d	96	1.34mi
601 E Pete Rose Way Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–2.5	1039	$2,448	$2.36	1d	22	1.36mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $183,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,800 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $184,800 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   status $184,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
10. 2026-05-20
    price $184,900
11. 2026-05-11
    price $185,900
12. 2026-05-06
    price $186,900
13. 2026-04-13
    price $187,400
14. 2026-03-19
    status Active
15. 2026-03-06
    status Pending
16. 2026-02-19
    price $187,900
17. 2026-02-05
    price $188,900
18. 2026-01-18
    status Active
19. 2026-01-13
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-09
    price $189,900
21. 2025-12-08
    price $194,900
22. 2025-11-11
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2025-06-09
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 2018-04-02
    soldstatus $15,000
25. 2009-03-18
    soldstatus $13,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    1 Bdrm, 2 bath, newer furnace, tenant pays $500/mo rent

26. 2008-11-02
    listed $11,975 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    1 Bdrm, 2 bath, newer furnace, tenant pays $500/mo rent

27. 2004-12-14
    soldstatus $16,500 50-char remark

    Show marketing remark (50 chars)

    Property sold As is- Where is; Addendum A required

28. 2004-09-29
    listed $19,500 50-char remark

    Show marketing remark (50 chars)

    Property sold As is- Where is; Addendum A required

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 119.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,301
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$5,350
• Taxable loss: −$68
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $3,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+848.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $184,900 NKMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $185,900 NKMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $186,900 NKMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $187,400 NKMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $187,900 NKMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $188,900 NKMLS
• 2026-01-18 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-01-13 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $189,900 NKMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $194,900 NKMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $199,900 NKMLS
• 2025-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-18 Sold (MLS) $13,000 NKMLS
• 2008-11-02 Listed $11,975 NKMLS
• 2004-12-14 Sold (MLS) $16,500 NKMLS
• 2004-09-29 Listed $19,500 NKMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · +72.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.