302 Lake Forest Cir · Lyons, TX 77879

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1980 8,712 sqft lot $79/sqft · 46% below area Est $233k · 29% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful living near Lake Somerville in this inviting retreat tucked among the natural beauty of Burleson County. Thoughtfully positioned to capture the morning light, the front of the home features an impressive wall of windows that fills the interior with warm sunrise views and creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere to start each day. The elevated design gives the home a distinctive presence and a charming pseudo two story appearance, adding both curb appeal and character. Set in a quiet community just minutes from the lake, this property offers a relaxing escape with easy access to outdoor recreation including boating, fishing, and nature exploration. A deck provides the perfect space to unwind, entertain, or simply take in the peaceful surroundings. Whether seeking a weekend getaway or full time residence, this home blends comfort, unique architectural charm, and a serene setting in a desirable lakeside area.

Key facts

• Deck
• Wall of windows
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALL OF WINDOWS
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerville El (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 225 students, 77% FRL); Somerville Int (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 109 students, 72% FRL); Somerville H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 199 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,338 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,350
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -29.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Sage Brush Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	4mo	$425,000	$229	57
414 Sherwood Frst	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (-8%)	24mo	$315,000	$164	38
212 Shadow Oak Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-13%)	20mo	$317,000	$176	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,991
• Equity at exit: $58,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,569
• Equity at exit: $78,576

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77879

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $126,872

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-169	+0% $-216	+5% $-263	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-262	+0% $-216	+5% $-170	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-174	base $-216	+0.5pp $-259	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Pending 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Pending 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Pending 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Pending 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Pending 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Pending 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Pending 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   status $165,000 Pending 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $165,000 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful living near Lake Somerville in this inviting retreat tucked among the natural beauty of Burleson County. Thoughtfully positioned to capture the morning light, the front of the home features an impressive wall of windows that fills the interior with warm sunrise views and creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere to start each day. The elevated design gives the home a distinctive presence and a charming pseudo two story appearance, adding both curb appeal and character. Set in a quiet community just minutes from the lake, this property offers a relaxing escape with easy access to outdoor recreation including boating, fishing, and nature exploration. A deck provides the perfect space to unwind, entertain, or simply take in the peaceful surroundings. Whether seeking a weekend getaway or full time residence, this home blends comfort, unique architectural charm, and a serene setting in a desirable lakeside area.

19. 2023-10-04
    soldstatus
20. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus Closed 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

21. 2023-08-23
    status Pending 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

22. 2023-08-22
    status Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

23. 2023-08-14
    historical
24. 2023-08-01
    historical 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

25. 2023-07-29
    price $165,000 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

26. 2023-06-29
    price $189,900 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

27. 2023-05-23
    listed $200,000 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

28. 2023-05-23
    listed $200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! One of a kind house with elevated deck in the popular Birch Creek Forest Subdivision just 5 mins from Lake Somerville on a very quiet cul de sac. Your family will enjoy nights on the deck at this cozy home with potential to add those finishing touches! Main floor consists of family room, bedroom, kitchen, full bath and roomy upstairs loft! Unfinished ground floor can be for storage! Property offers floor-ceiling windows, raised ceiling, wood burning fireplace and a wrap around porch. Washer and dryer connections are located in the garage. Subdivision amenities include: paved roads, street lights, swimming pool, trash site, VFD and boat ramp within the subdivision. Lots of upgrades including: New roof & Seamless Gutters with leaf guards 2022, New deck on elevated part and added a New staircase, New Flooring, All Pex plumbing and Central Air and Heat.

29. 2023-05-11
    price $200,000
30. 2023-03-30
    price $215,000
31. 2022-12-07
    listed $230,000 Active
32. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus
33. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus
34. 2019-08-14
    listed $89,900
35. 2019-05-29
    historical
36. 2019-02-01
    listed $120,000
37. 2009-03-18
    soldstatus
38. 1985-12-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 4,775

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 178.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+37.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-23 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-22 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Delisted — BCSRMLS
• 2023-07-29 Price Changed $165,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $189,900 BCSRMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listed $200,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $200,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-03-30 Price Changed $215,000 BCSRMLS
• 2022-12-07 Listed $230,000 BCSRMLS
• 2020-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-13 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2019-08-14 Listed $89,900 BCSRMLS
• 2019-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-02-01 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2009-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,314 · +23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.