3932 County Road 911 · Burleson, TX 76058

$190,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2007 1.00 ac lot $93/sqft · 22% below area Est $245k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Newer metal siding
• Secure entry gate

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• SECURE ENTRY GATE
• NEWER METAL SIDING
• NEWLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• DETACHED CARPORT
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,674
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3932 County Road 911	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,048 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$93	100
6320 County Road 912	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-6%)	17mo	$254,990	$133	64
3505 Cobbler Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,993 (-3%)	15mo	$279,000	$140	54
3329 Cobbler Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (+4%)	4mo	$208,000	$98	52
5813 County Road 912	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-7%)	3mo	$258,000	$136	52
5921 Black Springs Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-7%)	7mo	$260,000	$137	44
3504 Wild Horse Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,920 (-6%)	20mo	$260,000	$135	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,558
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $64,582
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,060/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $719	+0% $665	+5% $611	+10% $557
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $569	+0% $665	+5% $761	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $761	-0.5pp $713	base $665	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

2. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Option Contract 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

3. 2026-05-05
   price $190,000 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $210,000 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

5. 2026-03-20
   price $235,000 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

6. 2026-02-12
   listed $250,000 Active 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Located at 3932 County Road 911 in Joshua, this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a level, fully fenced one-acre lot with a secure entry gate and room to grow with No HOA and NO restrictions. The exterior features newer durable metal siding and roof. A large front patio provides a serene setting for relaxing after a long day. Inside, the functional floor plan includes a primary suite with a private bath. The newly renovated kitchen features a range and oven, updated countertops, and new cabinets. Central electric heating and cooling provide year-round comfort. Outside, a detached carport and gravel driveway provide ample parking for vehicles and guests. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping and close proximity to the freeway.

7. 2013-05-20
   soldstatus Closed 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Three bed, two bath doublewide on one acre. Oversized dining room could also be a second living area. Kitchen has lots of storage. Kitchen sink and dishwasher on kitchen island. Spacious storage and a large utility room. Existing FHA appraisal has approved home for FHA 203(b) with repair escrow and FHA 203(k). Lot consists of 2 parcels which combine for a full acre. HUD #492-790270. HUD Homes are sold AS IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

8. 2013-05-07
   status Pending 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Three bed, two bath doublewide on one acre. Oversized dining room could also be a second living area. Kitchen has lots of storage. Kitchen sink and dishwasher on kitchen island. Spacious storage and a large utility room. Existing FHA appraisal has approved home for FHA 203(b) with repair escrow and FHA 203(k). Lot consists of 2 parcels which combine for a full acre. HUD #492-790270. HUD Homes are sold AS IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

9. 2013-04-27
   listed $23,000 Active 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Three bed, two bath doublewide on one acre. Oversized dining room could also be a second living area. Kitchen has lots of storage. Kitchen sink and dishwasher on kitchen island. Spacious storage and a large utility room. Existing FHA appraisal has approved home for FHA 203(b) with repair escrow and FHA 203(k). Lot consists of 2 parcels which combine for a full acre. HUD #492-790270. HUD Homes are sold AS IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,417/yr (+$118/mo · 68.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,060
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $5,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $6,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+726.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2013-05-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-05-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-04-27 Listed $23,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,060 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.