1377 Granville Hwy · Gainesboro, TN 38562

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1996 4,356 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreaming of an affordable home with a creek in your back yard ? Look no further ! This mobile home has new roof, new siding, new heat & air units, new plumbing, some new dry wall. All the majors are done, you will only need to finish the inside and under pin. Cute creek ! close to Granville, Lakes and Rivers.

Key facts

• Nice lot
• Creek
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• NICE LOT
• CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level; Approximately 1,216 square feet of living area
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: 0.1-acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 100 x 200 x 60

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Electric oven; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#388 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 27% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #79 of 139 in TN (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gainesboro Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 341 students, 0% FRL); Jackson County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 403 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $49k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.35%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $58,417
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.73×
• Total profit: $147,149
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38562

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $131/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $449

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $512	+0% $498	+5% $484	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $455	+0% $498	+5% $540	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $510	base $498	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-01-09
    listed $49,000 Active
20. 2025-12-30
    listed $49,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Dreaming of an affordable home with a creek in your back yard ? Look no further ! This mobile home has new roof, new siding, new heat & air units, new plumbing, some new dry wall. All the majors are done, you will only need to finish the inside and under pin. Cute creek ! close to Granville, Lakes and Rivers.

21. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $13,500 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Creek in backyard convenient to Granville and Gainesboro. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath house is priced to sell!!

22. 2015-10-26
    listed $16,000 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Creek in backyard convenient to Granville and Gainesboro. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath house is priced to sell!!

23. 2003-10-25
    soldstatus $25,000
24. 2001-07-13
    soldstatus $27,783

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $131 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 165.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$131
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,328
• After-tax cash flow: $4,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 4702070
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,962
• Composite: 22.09/100
• National rank: #8186
• State rank: #79 of 139 in TN

Livability — Gainesboro

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #24363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,586
• Population (ZIP): 6,586

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,267 people
• By 2030: 10,952 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,150 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 9,246 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 7,548 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 5,856 · -48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.5) · D 18.3% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -63.3pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -62.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.5 2020: R+56.0 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+15.4 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.62%
• Current HPI: 419.1373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+76.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $49,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $49,000 UCMLS
• 2016-04-27 Sold (MLS) $13,500 UCMLS
• 2015-10-26 Listed $16,000 UCMLS
• 2003-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $27,783 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $131 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.