1811 Gwynns Falls Pkwy · Baltimore, MD 21217

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Townhouse public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1927 1,742 sqft lot $72/sqft · 5% above area Est $114k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

END OF GROUP BRICK PORCH FRONT USED AS TWO UNITS IN NEED OF REPAIR. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS

Key facts

• One car garage
• Front porch
• Parking pad

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• PARKING PAD
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• SHOPPING AND DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ownership interest: Ground Rent

Exterior

• Parking: Rear-entry attached garage (1 space); Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: End of Row/Townhouse structure; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade finished area and below-grade unfinished area
• Exterior features: End of row townhouse; Ground rent paid annually

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Natural gas for heating, hot water, and cooling fuel
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $120k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.80%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,235
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 5.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2105 Whittier Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,587 (-4%)	1mo	$80,000	$50	86
2521 Reisterstown Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$136	81
2117 N Smallwood St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+1%)	1mo	$192,000	$114	78
3104 Tioga Pkwy	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-1%)	3mo	$217,000	$132	71
2009 Ruxton Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$234,000	$146	66
2402 Liberty Heights Ave	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,800 (+9%)	4mo	$90,000	$50	64
608 Cumberland St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$90,000	$53	58
1601 Ruxton Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,568 (-5%)	1mo	$90,000	$57	58
2326 Braddish Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-9%)	2mo	$159,000	$106	53
2453 Mcculloh St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,460 (-12%)	3mo	$99,900	$68	47
2304 Ashburton St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-8%)	4mo	$255,000	$168	43
1722 N Bentalou St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-12%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $15,443
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $79,388
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21217

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,124/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $476	+0% $442	+5% $408	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $373	+0% $442	+5% $511	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $473	base $442	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.13mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	19d	1	0.13mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	45d	1	0.17mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.17mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.17mi
2231 Orem Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,750	$1.54	19d	1	0.18mi
2128 N Pulaski St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	2166	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	0.23mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	6d	1	0.31mi
2910 Reisterstown Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	950	$1,414	$1.49	16d	4	0.44mi
3104 Tioga Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,050	$1.25	23d	1	0.45mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	6d	4	0.47mi
2505 Woodbrook Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1256	$1,745	$1.39	3d	1	0.48mi
2305 Wichita Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1950	$1,300	$0.67	25d	1	0.51mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	0.51mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	12d	1	0.51mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	25d	1	0.53mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	45d	1	0.54mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	6d	1	0.54mi
1806 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	21d	1	0.57mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	45d	1	0.57mi
1617-A Moreland Ave Unit 2nd Flr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	45d	1	0.64mi
2449 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.64mi
2409 Francis St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1298	$1,500	$1.16	45d	1	0.64mi
2433 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,999	$1.83	45d	1	0.66mi
1616 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	6d	1	0.66mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	0.67mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	6d	1	0.67mi
1121 Whitelock St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,300	$1.10	45d	1	0.73mi
519 Sanford Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	0.74mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	0.74mi
1516 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1830	$1,750	$0.96	16d	1	0.76mi
1205 Clendenin St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1560	$800	$0.51	25d	1	0.78mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	0.80mi
1433 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.81mi
2339 Eutaw Pl Ste 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,275	$0.98	45d	1	0.84mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	25d	1	0.90mi
805 Brooks Ln #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2120	$1,500	$0.71	4d	1	0.90mi
2401 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,675	$1.52	25d	3	0.93mi
2407 Brookfield Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	45d	1	0.93mi
1315 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    status Active 673-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    historical 673-char remark
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $165,000 Active 673-char remark
18. 2008-09-11
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    END OF GROUP BRICK PORCH FRONT USED AS TWO UNITS IN NEED OF REPAIR. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS

19. 2008-06-06
    historical 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    END OF GROUP BRICK PORCH FRONT USED AS TWO UNITS IN NEED OF REPAIR. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS

20. 2008-05-31
    listed $37,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    END OF GROUP BRICK PORCH FRONT USED AS TWO UNITS IN NEED OF REPAIR. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS

21. 2006-02-16
    soldstatus $82,000
22. 2005-10-26
    soldstatus $82,000

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Duplex - Separate furnaces and gas & electric meters. 1st floor - LR, Bedroom, Breakfast Room, Kitchen. 2nd floor - LR, 2 bedrooms, kitchen. Owner pays water bill. 2nd floor - occupied. Refrigerator 1st floor conveys.

23. 2005-08-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Duplex - Separate furnaces and gas & electric meters. 1st floor - LR, Bedroom, Breakfast Room, Kitchen. 2nd floor - LR, 2 bedrooms, kitchen. Owner pays water bill. 2nd floor - occupied. Refrigerator 1st floor conveys.

24. 2005-07-28
    listed $99,900

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Duplex - Separate furnaces and gas & electric meters. 1st floor - LR, Bedroom, Breakfast Room, Kitchen. 2nd floor - LR, 2 bedrooms, kitchen. Owner pays water bill. 2nd floor - occupied. Refrigerator 1st floor conveys.

25. 1986-12-18
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,124
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $4,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,792
• Household income: $38,409
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.20%
• Current HPI: 104.2102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+380.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRIS
• 2008-06-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-05-31 Listed $37,900 MRIS
• 2006-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-26 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MRIS
• 2005-08-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-07-28 Listed $99,900 MRIS
• 1986-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,124 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.