3102 Emerald Hills Dr · Angleton, TX 77515

$255,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Springsteen Floor Plan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,965.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,059 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,965
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -0.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3114 Emerald Hills Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	2mo	$254,540	$122	99
3102 Emerald Hills Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	2mo	$255,990	$123	98
8039 Topaz Ridge Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (-5%)	1mo	$252,890	$128	85
7923 Jade Crest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,916 (-8%)	1mo	$276,910	$145	73
7823 Jade Crest Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-0%)	2mo	$396,417	$191	64
7827 Morganite Mist Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-8%)	1mo	$223,990	$116	63
3214 Tanzanite Chase Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+9%)	1mo	$320,540	$141	58
3203 Diamond View Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-8%)	0mo	$301,290	$158	51
3139 Diamond View Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+9%)	1mo	$321,040	$141	50
3119 Diamond View Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-8%)	0mo	$305,540	$160	50
3107 Diamond View Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-8%)	1mo	$301,990	$158	49
3114 Diamond View Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,338 (+12%)	1mo	$307,990	$132	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-58,883
• Equity at exit: $38,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-73,043
• Equity at exit: $22,304

Cash invested: $72,230 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $301,140 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -20.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,869/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $218,972

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-180	+0% $-269	+5% $-359	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-429	-5% $-349	+0% $-269	+5% $-190	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-204	base $-269	+0.5pp $-336	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,491
• Closing costs: $7,739
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Onyx Valley Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$2,300	$1.17	0d	1	0.55mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse, park, pool, and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built 2026Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 11Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 11Office (first floor) — 14 x 11
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-04-24
   listed $255,990 Active 680-char remark
7. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-24
   historical
9. 2026-01-23
   listed $347,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,450
• − Property taxes: −$3,869
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,504
• Taxable loss: −$7,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,858
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rancho Isabella El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse, park, pool, and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built 2026Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 11Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 11Office (first floor) — 14 x 11
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-26.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $347,990 HARMLS