820 Cox Rd · Independence, KY 41051

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 0.36 ac lot Est $281k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

USDA Eligible Area/Private Wooded View/Hardwood Great Rm Opens To Granite Eat-In Kitchen/Stainless Steel Appliances/2 Full Baths/Finished Walkout LL Family Rm/Replacement Windows/Forget Crowded Communities!

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Granite countertops
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN FINISHES
• SPACIOUS TRI-LEVEL DESIGN
• USDA ELIGIBLE RURAL AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with front-facing door; Garage door opener; 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; Tri-level; Shingle roof; Built in 1983
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Wooded lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 10); Bedroom 2 (10 x 10); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Granite countertops; Eat-in kitchen; Attic storage; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White'S Tower Elementary School (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #24 of 676 statewide, top 4%, 631 students, 41% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 616 students, 48% FRL); Scott High School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #94 of 254 statewide, top 37%, 1,071 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $265k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $230,931 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,078
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4370 Oliver Rd	0.20mi	4/1.5	1,250 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$220	77
798 Cox Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,097 (-7%)	2mo	$278,995	$254	76
764 Cox Rd	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-1%)	8mo	$260,000	$222	75
761 Cox Rd	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (+3%)	5mo	$205,000	$169	70
4414 Mayflower Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,274 (+8%)	7mo	$152,000	$119	60
756 Ridgepoint Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,298 (+10%)	4mo	$317,000	$244	57
6382 Waterview Way	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,156 (-2%)	11mo	$295,000	$255	55
6508 Taylor Mill Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,242 (+5%)	0mo	$290,000	$233	54
6416 Taylor Mill Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,073 (-9%)	0mo	$255,000	$238	49
692 Sycamore Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+9%)	1mo	$275,000	$214	46
712 Lakefield Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,084 (-8%)	1mo	$280,000	$258	45
6680 Frontier Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (-10%)	3mo	$282,650	$265	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,800
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,011
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41051

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,279/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,279
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$691
• After-tax cash flow: $2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Independence

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #6165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 33,054
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,054
• Household income: $104,201
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.60%
• Current HPI: 218.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+273.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $275,000 NKMLS
• 2020-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-20 Sold (MLS) $150,000 NKMLS
• 2020-01-27 Pending — NKMLS
• 2020-01-21 Price Changed $150,000 NKMLS
• 2020-01-09 Price Changed $154,500 NKMLS
• 2019-12-21 Price Changed $159,500 NKMLS
• 2019-11-23 Listed $165,000 NKMLS
• 2014-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $119,900 NKMLS
• 2014-08-21 Listed $119,900 NKMLS
• 2014-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-11 Sold (MLS) $58,000 NKMLS
• 2014-02-28 Listed $70,000 NKMLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2009-10-25 Listed $129,500 NKMLS
• 1998-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $73,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,279 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.