501 Oak Rdg E · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1973 6,399 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make your appointment today to see this well maintained home located in Village Lakeland. This 3/2 Mobile Home is located on a double corner lot. .. .1/3 of an acre, and has NO LOT RENT! You own the land with the purchase of the home! Brand new roof October 2017. New AC in 2015. Large storage shed with additional Utility Room. Call today to get in on this great opportunity!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Hvac
• Public water

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HVAC
• FULLY ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• PUBLIC WATER
• SPACIOUS STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.15 acres (61 x 106), paved road access; Living area about 1,200 square feet; Unfurnished; Homestead property
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (3 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; Faces East
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as one level
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $150k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.50%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,458
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $31,441
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $550	+0% $508	+5% $465	+10% $423
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $435	+0% $508	+5% $580	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $546	base $508	+0.5pp $469	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.11mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.58mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	15d	1	0.58mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	24d	1	0.86mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	4d	1	1.09mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	24d	1	1.19mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	24d	1	1.21mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	24d	1	1.22mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	4d	1	1.42mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	15d	1	1.46mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $150,000
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2018-06-21
    soldstatus $70,000
18. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Make your appointment today to see this well maintained home located in Village Lakeland. This 3/2 Mobile Home is located on a double corner lot. .. .1/3 of an acre, and has NO LOT RENT! You own the land with the purchase of the home! Brand new roof October 2017. New AC in 2015. Large storage shed with additional Utility Room. Call today to get in on this great opportunity!

19. 2018-04-10
    status Pending 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Make your appointment today to see this well maintained home located in Village Lakeland. This 3/2 Mobile Home is located on a double corner lot. .. .1/3 of an acre, and has NO LOT RENT! You own the land with the purchase of the home! Brand new roof October 2017. New AC in 2015. Large storage shed with additional Utility Room. Call today to get in on this great opportunity!

20. 2018-04-09
    status Pending 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Make your appointment today to see this well maintained home located in Village Lakeland. This 3/2 Mobile Home is located on a double corner lot. .. .1/3 of an acre, and has NO LOT RENT! You own the land with the purchase of the home! Brand new roof October 2017. New AC in 2015. Large storage shed with additional Utility Room. Call today to get in on this great opportunity!

21. 2018-03-15
    listed $79,900 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Make your appointment today to see this well maintained home located in Village Lakeland. This 3/2 Mobile Home is located on a double corner lot. .. .1/3 of an acre, and has NO LOT RENT! You own the land with the purchase of the home! Brand new roof October 2017. New AC in 2015. Large storage shed with additional Utility Room. Call today to get in on this great opportunity!

22. 1997-07-16
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$111/yr (+$9/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$928
• After-tax cash flow: $5,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1400.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-14 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-15 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,134 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.