311 Lake Mendocino Dr #14 · Ukiah, CA 95482

$74,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home situated on a desirable corner lot, offering extra space and added privacy. Perfect for your family! It's inviting open floor plan features a recently remodeled bathroom, newly installed mini-split systems, and electric wall heaters for year-round comfort. Relax on the gorgeous covered porch and zen garden area. The property also offers shaded parking, convenient laundry hookups, and a spacious brick-accented backyard with plenty of room for outdoor entertaining. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Remodeled bathroom
• Mini-split systems

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• ELECTRIC WALL HEATERS
• COVERED PORCH
• ZEN GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $850; Future space rent $950
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Make/Manufacturer: MATTEE
• Exterior features: Located in a park community (Hapiness Is); Land lease

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless cooling (see remarks)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Breakfast nook; Pantry cabinet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.89%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $49,085
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $138,958
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $74,999

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,999 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 551-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $74,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $8,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both Replace the air conditioning units — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace the air conditioning units — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ukiah

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #14442

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• City population: 33,164
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $74,999 BAREIS