2209 Brown Station Rd · Brown Station, MD 20774

$243,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1962 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2209 Brown Station Road! This is a short sale opportunity on a 3-bedroom, 2-bath rambler offering a single-level traditional floor plan and great potential. The property requires updates and renovations and is ideal for buyers looking to customize or improve a home. There is an added bonus room currently used as a den in addition to an attached shed that adds functional space and offers potential for enhancement into a sunroom or multipurpose area. Use and conversion subject to buyer due diligence and local requirements. Features include a functional layout with well-proportioned rooms and the convenience of one-level living. Property is being sold strictly as-is; seller will mak

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $243k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowhead Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 406 students, 76% FRL); James Madison Middle (math 4% / reading 27%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 873 students, 62% FRL); Largo High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #162 of 222 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $243k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,250

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,423
• Equity at exit: $36,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $71,256
• Equity at exit: $21,032

Cash invested: $68,110 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20774

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,276
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,729/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $243,250

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $740	-5% $671	+0% $603	+5% $534	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $488	+0% $603	+5% $717	+10% $832
Rate	-1.0pp $725	-0.5pp $664	base $603	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,812
• Closing costs: $7,298
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1306 Wembley Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	2.0	1280	$3,550	$2.77	12d	1	1.14mi
12250 Open View Ln #811 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1570	$2,625	$1.67	45d	1	1.40mi
1001 Treeland Way #501 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1570	$2,700	$1.72	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   historical
3. 2026-01-10
   listed $243,250 Active
4. 2026-01-09
   historical $243,250
5. 1996-07-01
   soldstatus $125,000
6. 1987-04-10
   soldstatus $89,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,729 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,729 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,626
• − Property taxes: −$3,729
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,783
• − Management: −$2,783
• − Depreciation: −$7,076
• Taxable income: $3,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$858
• After-tax cash flow: $6,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Brown Station

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brown Station, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 51,816
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Two or more races 5% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 264.2372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+170.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $243,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Coming Soon $243,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $89,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,729 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.