11 Paths End Ct · Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,390,000

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1975 5.18 ac lot Est $2250k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

There are countless opportunities here! This contemporary 3,328 sq ft home with pool sits on a 2.8 acre lot. Enjoy open living spaces with vaulted ceilings, large windows that let natural light in, an updated kitchen, a primary suite and a junior suite on the main floor, four additional bedrooms and great spaces for entertaining. You will find deck space on either side of the house for taking in the natural surrounding, enjoying some fresh air, or relaxing with a book or some of your favorite music. The sunny pool is a great place to relax and cool off during the summer months. Besides the pool area, there is plenty of outdoor space for recreation. Located at the end of a cul-de-sac in Rosk

Key facts

• Cul-de-sacs
• Updated kitchen
• Deck space

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DECK SPACE
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CUL-DE-SACS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($381k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($58k rent vs $2.39M).
• Recommended offer: $2.10M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $57,977/mo this rent would consume 386% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $223k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $206k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $669k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$357k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,103,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.98%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,249,728
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Deer Ridge Trl	0.49mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,550 (+7%)	5mo	$2,400,000	$676	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $3,411,332
• Equity at exit: $1,919,303

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 14.71×
• Total profit: $9,172,932
• Equity at exit: $3,913,046

Cash invested: $669,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $57,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,533
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,982/yr
• Insurance: −$996
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,175
• Net cashflow: $31,774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,757

Max offer price $2,390,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $597,500
• Closing costs: $71,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
779 Noyack Rd Southampton, NY	6.0	7.5	4653	$45,000	$9.67	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-14
   price $2,390,000
3. 2025-07-22
   listed $2,500,000 Active
4. 2025-07-21
   historical
5. 2025-03-26
   price $5,999,000
6. 2024-10-23
   listed $6,999,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,982 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,187 · $1,932/mo
• Expected delta: +$17,204/yr (+$1,434/mo · 287.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $695,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$133,877
• − Property taxes: −$5,982
• − Insurance: −$11,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$55,658
• − Management: −$55,658
• − Depreciation: −$69,527
• Taxable income: $363,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87,137
• After-tax cash flow: $294,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-65.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $2,390,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Listed $2,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $5,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Listed $6,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,982 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.