869 Upper Mad River Rd Unit B-1 · Thornton, NH 03285

$325,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · Condo · 138 Days on market

Built 1973 $437/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful and inviting, this 4 bedroom 4 full bath condo with recent upgrades can include the comfortable furniture and furnishings. Owner's have updated the appliances, carpets and have installed tile flooring in parts of the lower level. Being an End Unit you will get additional natural light and privacy. Gateway's location is perfect for hiking, skiing, stargazing located in the heart of the White Mountains and just up the road from Smarts Brook, Welch-Dickey Trailhead, Waterville Valley and so much more. Short term minimum stays are 7 days. A great place for friends, family and/or your guest. Outdoor Pool for seasonal use! Come and Explore. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Broker.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Outdoor pool
• Recent upgrades

Tags

• RECENT UPGRADES
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• END UNIT
• ADDITIONAL NATURAL LIGHT
• OUTDOOR POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Common land acreage for the development: 52 acres
• HOA & community: Condo fees (Gateway) include HOA fee, plowing, sewer and trash; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA provides landscaping, master insurance, in-ground pool, snow removal and trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Common/shared driveway
• Utilities: Community sewer; Community water; Circuit breaker electric service; High-speed internet available (cable); Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Gateway Condominium, Unit B-1; Existing construction
• Construction: Built in 1973; Wood frame with vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Surveyed
• Exterior features: Condo development in a country setting; Common/shared driveway; Common acreage; Wooded lot; Trails nearby; Near golf course; Near paths; Near skiing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Unit B-1 (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Baseboard heat; Electric heating; Multi-zone heating
• Interior features: Finished basement with interior access; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.64%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $219,069
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $612,965
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$437
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,396

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $880	-5% $768	+0% $655	+5% $543	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $488	+0% $655	+5% $822	+10% $989
Rate	-1.0pp $819	-0.5pp $738	base $655	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $437 · $5,244/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-28
   historical Active with Contract
2. 2026-03-18
   price $325,000
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $335,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,057
• − Management: −$4,057
• − HOA: −$5,244
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $3,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $7,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Thornton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $325,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $335,000 PrimeMLS