La Mirada Plan · Porter, TX 77365

$284,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,229 sqft · SingleFamily · 1096 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home has a convenient layout that is great for growing families. An open living area on the first floor includes a large family room, kitchen and dining area. Upstairs are four bedrooms, including a comfortable owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1095 days

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,761.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Porter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1540 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,416 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,761
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -2.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6202 Willow Sky Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+2%)	0mo	$347,500	$152	90
3417 Ridgeberry Glen Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+1%)	1mo	$310,300	$137	86
3422 Ridgeberry Glen Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+1%)	2mo	$309,990	$137	86
3402 Ridgeberry Glen Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+1%)	0mo	$318,000	$141	85
6218 Willow Sky Ct	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,218 (-0%)	2mo	$329,040	$148	83
6007 Majestic Creek Trl	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+1%)	3mo	$313,290	$139	82
4102 Slow Creek Ct	0.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,218 (-0%)	2mo	$332,000	$150	82
6011 Majestic Creek Trl	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-5%)	0mo	$309,790	$146	81
6003 Majestic Creek Trl	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,121 (-5%)	1mo	$313,540	$148	78
24308 Jane Ave	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,261 (+1%)	4mo	$452,000	$200	65
4272 Waterlily Spring Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-15%)	1mo	$318,000	$167	61
5030 Robin Park Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,507 (+12%)	0mo	$350,000	$140	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-66,357
• Equity at exit: $43,652

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-90,187
• Equity at exit: $25,313

Cash invested: $81,973 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.9 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,000 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1540
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,535
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,391/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $256,539

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-48	-5% $-149	+0% $-250	+5% $-351	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-339	+0% $-250	+5% $-162	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-176	base $-250	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,190
• Closing costs: $8,783
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3502 Penhurst Green Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,849	$1.23	65d	1	0.19mi
3888 Sunbird Creek Trl Porter, TX	5.0	3.0	2218	$2,275	$1.03	101d	1	0.25mi
6064 Majestic Creek Trl Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,370	$1.05	21d	1	0.26mi
6163 Emperor Pines Trl Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,240	$1.06	23d	1	0.26mi
3206 Abbey Field Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,623	$1.07	184d	1	0.38mi
3227 Rockdale Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,599	$1.10	10d	1	0.39mi
4456 Bethel Colony Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1651	$1,700	$1.03	23d	1	0.40mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,134	$1.19	184d	1	0.50mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,890	$1.05	1d	1	0.50mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,890	$1.05	114d	1	0.50mi
5818 Fairway Shores Ln Porter, TX	4.0	3.0	2813	$3,000	$1.07	112d	1	0.60mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	160d	1	1.03mi
5706 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,095	$0.89	156d	1	1.05mi
3203 Leafy Pine Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2548	$2,290	$0.90	16d	1	1.15mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	184d	1	1.20mi
3518 Galway Glen Trl Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,375	$1.23	78d	1	1.27mi
9323 Darby Knoll Way Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,595	$1.19	184d	1	1.29mi
3523 Kings Mountain Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	128d	1	1.31mi
3311 Golden Willow Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,095	$1.06	55d	1	1.42mi
3307 Golden Willow Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$1,895	$1.09	37d	1	1.43mi
3514 Appalachian Trl Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$2,100	$0.97	56d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 1096 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 1095 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 1094 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 1093 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 1092 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $284,990 Active 1090 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $284,990 Active 1089 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 1088 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 1087 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 1083 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 1082 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 1081 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 1080 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 1079 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 1078 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 1077 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 1076 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 1075 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $284,990 Active 1074 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 1073 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 1072 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 1071 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 1070 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $284,990 Active 1069 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $284,990 Active 1068 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $284,990 Active 1067 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 1066 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $284,990 Active 1065 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 1064 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 1063 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 1062 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 1061 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 1060 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 1059 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 1058 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 1057 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 1056 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 1055 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 1054 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 1053 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 1052 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 1051 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 1050 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 1049 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 1048 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 1047 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 1046 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,391
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − Depreciation: −$8,517
• Taxable loss: −$8,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in La Mirada Plan, Houston TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the home and attracts more buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 46,418
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $284,990 Zillow