221 Los Angeles Dr · Glenn Heights, TX 75154

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1997 7,797 sqft lot Est $215k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD CASE #492-554894 SOLD AS IS. BID DEADLINE 7-16 AT 11:59PM PST, THEN DAILY. ACCESS VIA HUD KEY. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFO.

Key facts

• No carpet
• Walk-in closet
• 3d walkthrough

Tags

• 3D WALKTHROUGH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• NO CARPET
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1997
• Exterior features: Back yard with wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Room count of 4
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-575/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Glenn Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,051 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields El (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 563 students, 60% FRL); Red Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,546 students, 63% FRL); Red Oak H S (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #495 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,160 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,454 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,704
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Los Angeles Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,136 (0%)	1mo	$214,900	$189	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,366
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,554
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,180/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $240,539

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $23	+0% $-48	+5% $-118	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-133	+0% $-48	+5% $38	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $15	base $-48	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2709 Star Ave Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,869	$1.62	45d	1	0.14mi
209 Wilshire Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,355	$1.64	7d	1	0.17mi
229 W Willow Creek Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,129	$1.53	45d	1	0.90mi
317 W Glen Meadow Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,070	$1.44	26d	1	1.03mi
103 Mesa Wood Cir Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,745	$1.28	45d	1	1.05mi
104 Mesa Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	1.10mi
104 Mesa Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,850	$1.62	26d	1	1.10mi
211 Tejas Dr Glenn Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,699	$1.35	45d	1	1.19mi
220 E Milas Ln Glenn Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1378	$2,111	$1.53	0d	1	1.29mi
241 N Overlook Dr Red Oak, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,503	$2.79	12d	5	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,180 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,180
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Glenn Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #18686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glenn Heights, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+211.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2006-11-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-09-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-07-07 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 1994-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,180 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.