303 Ranch Dr · Manchester, MO 63011

$315,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,089 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 0.33 ac lot $289/sqft · 54% above area Est $316k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new cozy multilevel 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home! This charming property boasts an inviting curb appeal. Step inside and you'll be greeted by a warm and welcoming living room, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample natural light. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and plenty of cabinet space for all your cooking needs. Head upstairs to find three comfortable bedrooms.The updated bathrooms feature modern fixtures and finishes, providing a spa-like experience in the comfort of your own home. The lower level of the home provides additional living space, perfect for a family room or home office, and the 4th bedroom. Step outside to the fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor entertaining or relaxing in privacy. This home has been meticulously maintained and updated with all new systems. Conveniently located near shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming property your own!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 1,677 (per assessor); Above-grade finished area 1,089 (public records); Below-grade finished area 588 (public records); Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 177
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with driveway (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split levels; Residential property
• Construction: Stone veneer and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total (3 upper level, 1 lower level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Partially finished walk-out basement; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#47 in MO, #3,638 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pierremont Elem. (math 67% / reading 78%, grade A, #19 of 1,115 statewide, top 2%, 453 students, 7% FRL); West Middle (math 54% / reading 66%, grade B, #20 of 391 statewide, top 5%, 1,021 students, 10% FRL); West High (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #15 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 1,436 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,235 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,806
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -0.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Spring Meadows Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+0%)	11mo	$238,000	$218	86
308 Spring Meadows Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-1%)	7mo	$265,000	$246	82
236 Ballwin Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-4%)	4mo	$245,000	$233	62
107 Lock Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+5%)	1mo	$199,900	$174	58
316 Lakeside Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,168 (+7%)	11mo	$269,900	$231	56
408 Saint Lawrence Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-4%)	2mo	$249,900	$240	56
449 Hillcrest Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	12mo	$295,000	$279	51
212 Lakeside Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	950 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$258	50
237 Chamberlin Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	8mo	$245,000	$245	49
313 Saint Lawrence Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	988 (-9%)	2mo	$255,000	$258	47
408 Ballwin Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	948 (-13%)	10mo	$279,900	$295	42
73 Hillcrest Blvd	0.70mi	3/1.0	980 (-10%)	8mo	$239,500	$244	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-80,001
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-118,827
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,858/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,559

Max offer price $247,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-295	+0% $-384	+5% $-473	+10% $-562
Rent	-10% $-548	-5% $-466	+0% $-384	+5% $-302	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-304	base $-384	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 Brightsand Ct Manchester, MO	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	3d	1	0.18mi
302 Brightsand Ct Manchester, MO	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	0d	1	0.18mi
500 Seven Trails Dr Ballwin, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,904	$1.63	0d	18	0.95mi
608 Connie Ln Manchester, MO	3.0	1.5	1189	$1,995	$1.68	9d	1	1.02mi
608 Connie Ln Manchester, MO	3.0	1.5	1189	$1,995	$1.68	0d	1	1.02mi
20 Alfresco Dr Manchester, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	9d	1	1.29mi
284 Ramsey Ln Ballwin, MO	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,300	$1.77	16d	1	1.45mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	0d	11	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 971-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $315,000 Active 971-char remark
3. 2026-05-03
   historical $315,000 971-char remark
4. 2023-04-12
   soldstatus $280,000
5. 2023-04-07
   soldstatus Closed 1000-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   Welcome to your new cozy multilevel 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home! This charming property boasts an inviting curb appeal. Step inside and you'll be greeted by a warm and welcoming living room, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample natural light. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and plenty of cabinet space for all your cooking needs. Head upstairs to find three comfortable bedrooms.The updated bathrooms feature modern fixtures and finishes, providing a spa-like experience in the comfort of your own home. The lower level of the home provides additional living space, perfect for a family room or home office, and the 4th bedroom. Step outside to the fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor entertaining or relaxing in privacy. This home has been meticulously maintained and updated with all new systems. Conveniently located near shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming property your own!

6. 2023-03-07
   status Pending 1000-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   Welcome to your new cozy multilevel 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home! This charming property boasts an inviting curb appeal. Step inside and you'll be greeted by a warm and welcoming living room, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample natural light. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and plenty of cabinet space for all your cooking needs. Head upstairs to find three comfortable bedrooms.The updated bathrooms feature modern fixtures and finishes, providing a spa-like experience in the comfort of your own home. The lower level of the home provides additional living space, perfect for a family room or home office, and the 4th bedroom. Step outside to the fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor entertaining or relaxing in privacy. This home has been meticulously maintained and updated with all new systems. Conveniently located near shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming property your own!

7. 2023-03-03
   listed $274,900 Active 1000-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   Welcome to your new cozy multilevel 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home! This charming property boasts an inviting curb appeal. Step inside and you'll be greeted by a warm and welcoming living room, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample natural light. The updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and plenty of cabinet space for all your cooking needs. Head upstairs to find three comfortable bedrooms.The updated bathrooms feature modern fixtures and finishes, providing a spa-like experience in the comfort of your own home. The lower level of the home provides additional living space, perfect for a family room or home office, and the 4th bedroom. Step outside to the fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor entertaining or relaxing in privacy. This home has been meticulously maintained and updated with all new systems. Conveniently located near shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming property your own!

8. 2021-03-23
   soldstatus $240,000
9. 2021-03-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Awesome opportunity in Parkway school district. Gorgeous multi level 4 bedroom home on nearly 1/3 acre level, park-like lot. Centrally located near popular shopping, major highway access, and entertainment. Home has had many updates -- newer architectural roof, newer Lennox HVAC, updated 200 amp electrical panel, etc, etc. Home boasts extra deep garage and large kitchen area. Nearly 1600sf of finished living area here. A short walk to Baxter Acres Park. Nothing left to do but move in and enjoy. Don't wait, call today!

10. 2021-03-19
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Awesome opportunity in Parkway school district. Gorgeous multi level 4 bedroom home on nearly 1/3 acre level, park-like lot. Centrally located near popular shopping, major highway access, and entertainment. Home has had many updates -- newer architectural roof, newer Lennox HVAC, updated 200 amp electrical panel, etc, etc. Home boasts extra deep garage and large kitchen area. Nearly 1600sf of finished living area here. A short walk to Baxter Acres Park. Nothing left to do but move in and enjoy. Don't wait, call today!

11. 2021-01-23
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Awesome opportunity in Parkway school district. Gorgeous multi level 4 bedroom home on nearly 1/3 acre level, park-like lot. Centrally located near popular shopping, major highway access, and entertainment. Home has had many updates -- newer architectural roof, newer Lennox HVAC, updated 200 amp electrical panel, etc, etc. Home boasts extra deep garage and large kitchen area. Nearly 1600sf of finished living area here. A short walk to Baxter Acres Park. Nothing left to do but move in and enjoy. Don't wait, call today!

12. 2021-01-19
    listed $239,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Awesome opportunity in Parkway school district. Gorgeous multi level 4 bedroom home on nearly 1/3 acre level, park-like lot. Centrally located near popular shopping, major highway access, and entertainment. Home has had many updates -- newer architectural roof, newer Lennox HVAC, updated 200 amp electrical panel, etc, etc. Home boasts extra deep garage and large kitchen area. Nearly 1600sf of finished living area here. A short walk to Baxter Acres Park. Nothing left to do but move in and enjoy. Don't wait, call today!

13. 2018-04-13
    soldstatus Closed
14. 2018-04-13
    soldstatus $185,000
15. 2018-04-09
    status Pending
16. 2018-03-05
    historical Contingent (No Kickout)
17. 2018-02-01
    listed $199,900 Active
18. 1992-12-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,858
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,484
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #3638

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+57.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $315,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Coming Soon $315,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-03 Listed $274,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-19 Listed $239,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-13 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-05 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-01 Listed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,858 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.