216 Spruce Trl · Forney, TX 75126

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 10,454 sqft lot Est $345k · 13% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A spacious, well designed 4 bedroom home with front entry parking. For utility turn-on, approval must be granted in advance from HUD s Field Service Manager. In cases where plumbing deficiencies exist, approval for water turn-on may be denied.

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Updated flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LUXURY LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Municipal utility district: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with full use of facilities; Annual HOA fee of 345; HOA management: Classic Property Mng (817-640-2064)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car attached garage with double doors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Attached property; One level
• Construction: Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.24 acre); Subdivision: Trails Of Chestnut Meadow Ph 3

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Granite counters; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn El (math 19% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 697 students, 53% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,437 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Elm Grove Trl	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,604 (+3%)	3mo	$344,900	$132	83
131 Cherrytree Trl	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,342 (-7%)	3mo	$309,000	$132	74
211 Chinaberry Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,375 (-6%)	1mo	$325,000	$137	71
309 Cherrywood Trl	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,729 (+8%)	6mo	$299,000	$110	68
130 Cherrytree Trl	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,822 (+12%)	4mo	$309,999	$110	62
108 Aspenwood Trl	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,271 (-10%)	1mo	$309,900	$136	60
300 Glen Oak Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,166 (-14%)	7mo	$325,000	$150	58
429 Creekwood Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,202 (-13%)	7mo	$279,900	$127	54
761 Lombard Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,358 (-6%)	8mo	$379,999	$161	48
138 Mandarin St	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,243 (-11%)	2mo	$319,000	$142	46
159 Mandarin St	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,247 (-11%)	6mo	$324,900	$145	40
708 Ashley Gardens Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,775 (+10%)	6mo	$394,900	$142	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,890
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-109,190
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$643 /mo · $7,715/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,999

Max offer price $237,437

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-269	+0% $-354	+5% $-438	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-555	-5% $-454	+0% $-354	+5% $-253	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-203	-0.5pp $-277	base $-354	+0.5pp $-431	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Spruce Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2934	$2,350	$0.80	45d	1	0.12mi
315 Red Oak Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.24mi
105 Fieldwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,400	$1.32	22d	1	0.32mi
308 Chinaberry Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	45d	1	0.44mi
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	26d	1	0.48mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.51mi
731 Lauren Grove Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	0.55mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	1.20mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	23d	1	1.20mi
1021 Ellis Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3155	$2,995	$0.95	45d	1	1.21mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	1.26mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	1.32mi
213 Fox Hollow Blvd Forney, TX	5.0	3.5	3631	$4,600	$1.27	14d	1	1.35mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	1.37mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,715 · $643/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,715 · $643/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,715
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,450
• − Management: −$2,450
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,247
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2013-03-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-01-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-12-19 Listed $136,000 NTREIS
• 2006-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,715 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.