38 Milina Dr · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,995,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1980 0.47 ac lot $1247/sqft · 6% below area Est $2127k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SLEEK CONTEMPORARY IN EAST HAMPTON Renovated in a sleek contemporary style, this bright 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath retreat offers the perfect beach escape for summer stays and effortless year-round living. Enviably located on a shy half-acre less than 0.25 miles from the water and minutes to Sammy's Beach. Anchored by a dramatic great room with tall ceilings and walkout egress, the home is enhanced by beautiful hardwood floors, all-new modern baths, and thoughtful updates throughout - including new siding, a new roof, new lighting, and new bathrooms - creating a polished, move-in-ready setting with ample storage for every season. An expansive, sunlit lower level provides flexible bonus space ideal for a media lounge and home office, while outside, a large patio framed by mature plantings sets the scene for relaxed outdoor dining, entertaining, and quintessential Hamptons downtime.

Key facts

• New lighting
• New siding
• Modern baths

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MODERN BATHS
• NEW SIDING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.88M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,455/mo this rent would consume 189% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.15M; list at $2.00M implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,875,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,127,469
• List price: $1,995,000
• Delta: -6.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $61,147
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $898,539
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,159/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,296
• Net cashflow: $4,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,945

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,482	-5% $4,917	+0% $4,353	+5% $3,788	+10% $3,223
Rent	-10% $2,737	-5% $3,545	+0% $4,353	+5% $5,161	+10% $5,969
Rate	-1.0pp $5,357	-0.5pp $4,860	base $4,353	+0.5pp $3,836	+1.0pp $3,310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Deer Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$80,000	$61.54	26d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,995,000 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    SLEEK CONTEMPORARY IN EAST HAMPTON Renovated in a sleek contemporary style, this bright 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath retreat offers the perfect beach escape for summer stays and effortless year-round living. Enviably located on a shy half-acre less than 0.25 miles from the water and minutes to Sammy's Beach. Anchored by a dramatic great room with tall ceilings and walkout egress, the home is enhanced by beautiful hardwood floors, all-new modern baths, and thoughtful updates throughout - including new siding, a new roof, new lighting, and new bathrooms - creating a polished, move-in-ready setting with ample storage for every season. An expansive, sunlit lower level provides flexible bonus space ideal for a media lounge and home office, while outside, a large patio framed by mature plantings sets the scene for relaxed outdoor dining, entertaining, and quintessential Hamptons downtime.

17. 2024-08-13
    soldstatus $1,150,000
18. 2024-06-26
    soldstatus $1,150,000 Closed 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Charming Saltbox on one half acre, one quarter mile to a 5-mile Beach Enjoy as is, renovate or build new in this quiet neighborhood on the magnificent Gardiners Bay with a 5-mile beach that spans sunset beloved Sammy's Beach all the way to Cedar Point. This 1,100 square foot, two-story, 3 -bedroom, 2 bath, 1 hot tub, Saltbox with wood burning fireplace, sits on an approximate (100-foot-wide x 200 foot deep) half acre. The 2:1 ratio rectangle lot allows a wide variety of renovation or new construction options. With 20% allowable building coverage and 50% lot coverage, there is room for a sizable home, pool house and garage and room for a pool and expansive patio/decking. The property slopes down gently from front to back, perfect for renovating/building out a lower-level walk out. You can enjoy the beach year-round and in the cooler months come back to your hot tub and hotter crackling fire. It feels like a cozy ski house at the beach!

19. 2024-04-27
    status Pending 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Charming Saltbox on one half acre, one quarter mile to a 5-mile Beach Enjoy as is, renovate or build new in this quiet neighborhood on the magnificent Gardiners Bay with a 5-mile beach that spans sunset beloved Sammy's Beach all the way to Cedar Point. This 1,100 square foot, two-story, 3 -bedroom, 2 bath, 1 hot tub, Saltbox with wood burning fireplace, sits on an approximate (100-foot-wide x 200 foot deep) half acre. The 2:1 ratio rectangle lot allows a wide variety of renovation or new construction options. With 20% allowable building coverage and 50% lot coverage, there is room for a sizable home, pool house and garage and room for a pool and expansive patio/decking. The property slopes down gently from front to back, perfect for renovating/building out a lower-level walk out. You can enjoy the beach year-round and in the cooler months come back to your hot tub and hotter crackling fire. It feels like a cozy ski house at the beach!

20. 2023-10-05
    listed $1,395,000 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Charming Saltbox on one half acre, one quarter mile to a 5-mile Beach Enjoy as is, renovate or build new in this quiet neighborhood on the magnificent Gardiners Bay with a 5-mile beach that spans sunset beloved Sammy's Beach all the way to Cedar Point. This 1,100 square foot, two-story, 3 -bedroom, 2 bath, 1 hot tub, Saltbox with wood burning fireplace, sits on an approximate (100-foot-wide x 200 foot deep) half acre. The 2:1 ratio rectangle lot allows a wide variety of renovation or new construction options. With 20% allowable building coverage and 50% lot coverage, there is room for a sizable home, pool house and garage and room for a pool and expansive patio/decking. The property slopes down gently from front to back, perfect for renovating/building out a lower-level walk out. You can enjoy the beach year-round and in the cooler months come back to your hot tub and hotter crackling fire. It feels like a cozy ski house at the beach!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,159 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,937 · $1,661/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,778/yr (+$1,148/mo · 223.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $245,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$6,159
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,637
• − Management: −$19,637
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $20,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,863
• After-tax cash flow: $47,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,150,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-26 Sold (MLS) $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,159 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.