4251 27th Ct SW #104 · Golden Gate, FL 34116

$168,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 $465/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy Florida living in this first-floor, 2-bedroom, 2-bath condominium featuring a bright, open-concept floor plan. Recent updates include luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and fresh interior paint. Relax and unwind on the screened lanai. Located in the desirable 55+ community of Fairways at Par Five, residents enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with affordable condo fees that include cable, internet, water, sewer, lawn care, and more. The community offers an impressive array of amenities, including a clubhouse, resort-style pool, pickleball, tennis, bocce, shuffleboard, billiards, and a full calendar of social activities. Ideally situated just off Collier Boulevard and Golde

Key facts

• Tennis
• Clubhouse
• Pickleball

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SCREENED LANAI
• CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Possession at closing
• Multi-unit information: 1 unit per floor; 12 units in building; 52 units in complex; 1 total floor

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Condo management); Monthly HOA fee of $465; Annual recurring fees: $5,580; One-time fees: $150; HOA covers cable, insurance, internet/Wi‑Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, repairs, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, water; Community amenities include BBQ/picnic area, bocce court, clubhouse, community pool, community room, internet access, pickleball, streetlights, and underground utilities; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space
• Security: Impact resistant windows (storm protection)
• Utilities: Water: assessment paid; Sewer: assessment paid; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1–3 stories); Built in 1985; Rear exposure faces east; Part of GOLDEN GATE / FAIRWAYS AT PAR FIVE development
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact resistant windows; Landscaped area view; Paved road access; Zero lot line; Architectural restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath: none
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet; Dining in living area; Open porch/lanai; Unfurnished; 1 ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-423/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#455 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $168k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,771 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-34,847
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-53,966
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34116

• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$465
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $161,771

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $12	+0% $-35	+5% $-83	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-111	+0% $-35	+5% $41	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $7	base $-35	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4318 27th Ct SW #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	24d	1	0.14mi
4326 27th Ct SW #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	24d	1	0.15mi
4375 Golden Gate Pkwy Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	15d	1	0.53mi
4539 Coral Palms Ln Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,895	$2.51	15d	1	0.77mi
2601 47th Ter SW Apt B Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$2,000	$2.38	24d	1	0.77mi
3047 Tropicana Blvd Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	876	$1,795	$2.05	15d	1	0.88mi
3250 Magnolia Pond Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,349	$2.26	15d	20	1.04mi
1944 Sunshine Blvd Unit C Naples, FL	2.0	1.5	1098	$1,895	$1.73	24d	1	1.17mi
1880 Sunshine Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$1,795	$2.38	24d	1	1.27mi
4300 Atoll Ct Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,020	$2.22	15d	15	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $465 · $5,580/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcablelandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $168,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − HOA: −$5,580
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$2,992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Golden Gate

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #8290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Golden Gate, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 34,872
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,591
• Household income: $73,958
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1540.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 40% White 24% Black 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 20%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 55% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.48%
• Current HPI: 397.7049
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-68.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $168,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1998-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.